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Semi-Structural Model of Economy of the Southern Macroregion of Russia

Author

Listed:
  • Sophia Panteeva

    (Bank of Russia)

  • Sergey Arzhenovskiy

    (Bank of Russia)

  • Karen Tumanyants

    (Bank of Russia)

Abstract

This paper presents a modified semi-structural New Keynesian model for the Southern macroregion in gaps. The main features of the model include: the division of the economy into the Southern macroregion, the rest of Russia, and the external sector; using separate inflation components for food and non-food goods and for utility and non-utility services; taking into account the sectors of specialisation of the macroregion – agriculture and tourism; the inclusion of a fiscal block and a labour market block with a description of the dynamics of wages and unemployment; and restrictions on capital flows in the conditions of uncovered interest rate parity. The adequacy of the model is confirmed by an analysis of the impulse responses of the macro variables to shocks and by a decomposition of the output gap and inflation. The model makes it possible to formulate consistent forecasts of the key economic indicators of the Southern macroregion and to assess the impact of monetary policy on its economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Sophia Panteeva & Sergey Arzhenovskiy & Karen Tumanyants, 2025. "Semi-Structural Model of Economy of the Southern Macroregion of Russia," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 84(2), pages 65-88, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bkr:journl:v:84:y:2025:i:2:p:65-88
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    semi-structural model; quarterly forecast model; monetary policy; inflation; output gap; Southern macroregion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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