How Long Is a Spell of Unemployment? Illusions and Biases in the Use of CPS Data
Most data used to study the durations of unemployment spells come from the Current Population Survey, which is a point-in-time survey and gives an incomplete picture of the underlying duration distribution. We introduce a new sample of completed unemployment spells obtained from panel data and apply CPS sampling and reporting techniques to replicate the type of data used by other researchers. Predicted duration distributions derived from this CPS-like data are then compared to the actual distribution. We conclude that the best inferences that can be made about unemployment durations using CPS-like data are seriously biased.
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Volume (Year): 3 (1985)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bowers, J K & Harkess, D, 1979. "Duration of Unemployment by Age and Sex," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 46(183), pages 239-60, August.
- Keeley, Michael C, et al, 1978. "The Estimation of Labor Supply Models Using Experimental Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(5), pages 873-87, December.
- Abowd, John M & Zellner, Arnold, 1985. "Estimating Gross Labor-Force Flows," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 254-83, June.
- Frank, Robert H, 1978. "How Long Is a Spell of Unemployment?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(2), pages 285-302, March.
- Robert E. Hall, 1972. "Turnover in the Labor Force," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 3(3), pages 709-764.
- Akerlof, George A & Main, Brian G M, 1980. "Unemployment Spells and Unemployment Experience," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 885-93, December.
- Stephen W. Salant, 1977.
"Search Theory and Duration Data: A Theory of Sorts,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-57.
- Stephen W. Salant, 1974. "Search theory and duration data: a theory of sorts," Special Studies Papers 42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Tuma, Nancy Brandon & Robins, Philip K, 1980. "A Dynamic Model of Employment Behavior: An Application to the Seattle and Denver Income Maintenance Experiments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 1031-52, May.
- Kenneth Burdett & Nicholas M. Kiefer & Dale T. Mortensen & George R. Neumann, 1984. "Earnings, Unemployment, and the Allocation of Time Over Time," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(4), pages 559-578.
- Stephen T. Marston, 1976. "Employment Instability and High Unemployment Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 7(1), pages 169-210.
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