IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/beo/journl/v68y2023i238p87-113.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Ricardian Equivalence Or Twin Deficits Hypothesis? Evidence From Serbia

Author

Listed:
  • Jelena Rašković

Abstract

This study investigates empirically whether higher budget deficits worsen the current account balance in Serbia, which is in line with the twin deficit hypothesis.This prediction is very different from Ricardian equivalence theory, which implies that a decrease in public savings is always anticipated via increased private savings. Hence, budget deficits have no impact on the current account balance. Based on quarterly data for the period between 2005 and 2020 and using a multivariate vector autoregression (VAR) model and a short-run structural VAR model, this paper confirms the twin deficit hypothesis in Serbia. More precisely, a 1 percentage point increase in the budget deficit (as a percentage of GDP) generates a 0.31 percentage point increase in the current account deficit (as a percentage of GDP). Moreover, the result is also confirmed using alternative estimation techniques (GMM and OLS method). According to these results, macroeconomic policymakers in Serbia should resort to policies that encourage fiscal consolidation to rectify or at least mitigate deterioration of the current account balance.

Suggested Citation

  • Jelena Rašković, 2023. "Ricardian Equivalence Or Twin Deficits Hypothesis? Evidence From Serbia," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 68(238), pages 87-113, July – Se.
    • Handle: RePEc:beo:journl:v:68:y:2023:i:238:p:87-113
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ekof.bg.ac.rs/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/238-04.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Francesco Forte & Cosimo Magazzino, 2013. "Twin Deficits in the European Countries," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 19(3), pages 289-310, August.
    2. George Vamvoukas, 1999. "The twin deficits phenomenon: evidence from Greece," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(9), pages 1093-1100.
    3. Alka Obadić & Tomislav Globan & Ozana Nadoveza, 2014. "Contradicting the Twin Deficits Hypothesis: The Role of Tax Revenues Composition," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(6), pages 653-667, December.
    4. Salvatore, Dominick, 2006. "Twin deficits in the G-7 countries and global structural imbalances," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 701-712, September.
    5. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2000. "Current account dynamics and expected future budget deficits: some international evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 255-271, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. António Afonso & José Carlos Coelho, 2021. "60%, -4% And 6%, a Tale of Thresholds for EU Fiscal and Current Account Developments," EconPol Working Paper 69, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    2. Manamba Epaphra, 0. "The Twin Deficits Hypothesis: An Empirical Analysis for Tanzania," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 20(65), pages 2-34, September.
    3. Afonso, António & Coelho, José Carlos, 2022. "The role of fiscal policies for external imbalances: Evidence from the European Union," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(2).
    4. Piotr Bartkiewicz, 2020. "Quantitative Easing: New Normal or Emergency Measure?," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 14(3), September.
    5. Nurudeen Abu & Awadh Ahmed Mohammed Gamal, 2020. "An Empirical Investigation of the Twin Deficits Hypothesis in Nigeria: Evidence from Cointegration Techniques," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 14(3), September.
    6. José Carlos Coelho, 2020. "The relationship between budget deficit and external deficit: the case of Portugal," Working Papers REM 2020/0116, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    7. Samia OMRANE BELGUITH, 2016. "Twin deficit in MENA countries: an empirical investigation," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 19(60), pages 123-146, June.
    8. Algieri, Bernardina, 2013. "An empirical analysis of the nexus between external balance and government budget balance: The case of the GIIPS countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 233-253.
    9. Veronika Šuliková & Anna Tykhonenko, 2017. "The Impact Of Public Debt On The Twin Imbalances In Europe: A Threshold Model," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 62(213), pages 27-44, April - J.
    10. Francesco Forte & Cosimo Magazzino, 2015. "Ricardian equivalence and twin deficits hypotheses in the euro area," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 17(2), pages 148-166, October.
    11. Konstantinos P. Panousis & Minoas Koukouritakis, 2020. "Twin Deficits: Evidence From Portugal, Italy, Spain and Greece," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 55(5), pages 332-338, September.
    12. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Evan Lau, 2005. "Budget and Current Account Deficits in SEACEN Countries: Evidence Based on the Panel Approach," International Finance 0504002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Chowdhury, Khorshed & Saleh, Ali Salman, 2007. "Testing the Keynesian Proposition of Twin Deficits in the Presence of Trade Liberalisation: Evidence from Sri Lanka after War: the case of a bridge too far?," Economics Working Papers wp07-09, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    14. Maran Marimuthu & Hanana Khan & Romana Bangash, 2021. "Reverse Causality between Fiscal and Current Account Deficits in ASEAN: Evidence from Panel Econometric Analysis," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-18, May.
    15. Sarah El-Khishin & Jailan El-Saeed, 2021. "The Twin Deficit Hypothesis in the MENA Region: Do Geopolitics Matter?," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-17, September.
    16. António Afonso & José Carlos Coelho, 2021. "Current Account Targeting Hypothesis versus Twin Deficit Hypothesis: The EMU Experience of Portugal," EconPol Working Paper 68, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    17. Francesco Forte & Cosimo Magazzino, 2013. "Twin Deficits in the European Countries," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 19(3), pages 289-310, August.
    18. Tosun, M. Umur & Iyidogan, Pelin Varol & Telatar, Erdinç, 2014. "The Twin Deficits in Selected Central and Eastern European Economies: Bounds Testing Approach with Causality Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 141-160, June.
    19. Michalis Nikiforos & Laura Carvalho & Christian Schoder, 2013. "Foreign and Public Deficits in Greece: In Search of Causality," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_771, Levy Economics Institute.
    20. Evan Lau & Tuck Cheong Tang, 2009. "Twin deficits in Cambodia: Are there Reasons for Concern? An Empirical Study," Monash Economics Working Papers 11-09, Monash University, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:beo:journl:v:68:y:2023:i:238:p:87-113. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Goran Petrić (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/efbeoyu.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.