Norm misperceptions in social dilemmas: the role of preferences, heuristics and experiences

When facing a trade-off between prioritizing individual gains or societal benefits, individuals often rely on what they perceive to be the prevailing social norm. Promoting shifts towards beneficial social norms of behavior, or the abandonment of harmful ones, can therefore be crucial to enhance cooperation. This study investigates how individuals form and adjust misperceptions about norms in the absence of observable behaviors and corrective interventions. We focus on the post-lockdown COVID-19 context in Italy, surveying a representative sample of 2,020 respondents in a two-wave longitudinal fashion and eliciting their preferences for attending in-person activities as well as their perceptions of injunctive and descriptive norms about re-opening and attending those activities. Our findings suggest that people infer social norms primarily from their own preferences and a 'better-than-average' heuristic. As they gain more knowledge about the situation, personal preferences exert less influence on norm perceptions. Direct life experiences, such as a COVID-related health event, also correct norm misperceptions. These findings offer insights into how individual behaviors driven by misperceived norms can be recalibrated through personal experience, especially in a context of high uncertainty, health externalities, and limited information.