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A Direct test of the permanent income hypothesis: the brazilian case

  • Fabio Augusto Reis Gomes

    (Fucape Business School)

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    This paper aims to analyze whether the permanent income hypothesis (PIH) can explain the evolution of consumption in Brazil using a direct test based on consumption revisions induced by income innovations. Under PIH, consumption should react to income changes inasmuch as current income has information about the permanent income. To measure this connection, an ARIMA(p,1,q) model was estimated for current income and, as a result, it was possible to check if revisions in consumption and permanent income are similar. At the end, the PIH was rejected.

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    Article provided by Fucape Business School in its journal Brazilian Business Review.

    Volume (Year): 9 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 4 (October)
    Pages: 87-102

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    Handle: RePEc:bbz:fcpbbr:v:9:y:2012:i:4:p:87-102
    Contact details of provider: Postal: Fucape Business School Brazilian Business Review Av. Fernando Ferrari, 1358, Boa Vista CEP 29075-505 Vitória-ES
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    1. Kenneth D. West, 1987. "The Insensitivity of Consumption to News About Income," NBER Working Papers 2252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Brady, Ryan R., 2008. "Structural breaks and consumer credit: Is consumption smoothing finally a reality?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1246-1268, September.
    3. Milton Friedman, 1957. "Introduction to "A Theory of the Consumption Function"," NBER Chapters, in: A Theory of the Consumption Function, pages 1-6 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Quah, D., 1989. "Permanent And Transitory Movements In Labor Income: An Explanation For "Excess Smoothness" In Consumption," Working papers 535, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    5. Gomes, Fábio Augusto Reis & Issler, João Victor & Salvato, Márcio Antônio, 2005. "Principais Características do Consumo de Duráveis no Brasil e Testes de Separabilidade entre Duráveis e Não-Duráveis," Revista Brasileira de Economia, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 59(1), January.
    6. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    7. John W. Dawson & Joseph P. Dejuan & John J. Seater & E. Frank Stephenson, 2001. "Economic information versus quality variation in cross-country data," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(4), pages 988-1009, November.
    8. George-Marios Angeletos, 2001. "The Hyberbolic Consumption Model: Calibration, Simulation, and Empirical Evaluation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 47-68, Summer.
    9. Gomes, Fábio Augusto Reis, 2004. "Consumo no Brasil: Teoria da Renda Permanente, Formação de Hábito e Restrição à Liquidez," Revista Brasileira de Economia, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 58(3), September.
    10. Campbell, John Y & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1990. "Permanent Income, Current Income, and Consumption," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(3), pages 265-79, July.
    11. repec:fth:harver:1435 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December.
    13. Joseph DeJuan & John Seater & Tony Wirjanto, 2003. "A Direct Test of the Permanent Income Hypothesis with an Application to the US States," Working Papers 03001, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2003.
    14. Marjorie Flavin, 1985. "Excess Sensitivity of Consumption to Current Income: Liquidity Constraints or Myopia?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 18(1), pages 117-36, February.
    15. Sarantis, Nicholas & Stewart, Chris, 2003. "Liquidity constraints, precautionary saving and aggregate consumption: an international comparison," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 1151-1173, December.
    16. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "Consumption, Income, and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence," NBER Working Papers 2924, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Milton Friedman, 1957. "A Theory of the Consumption Function," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie57-1, July.
    18. Vaidyanathan, Geetha, 1993. "Consumption, liquidity constraints and economic development," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 591-610.
    19. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1981. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 974-1009, October.
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