Share-Shift Analysis of Healthcare and Education Infrastructure in Bulgaria

This study analyses the state and evolution of Bulgaria’s social infrastructure – specifically health and educational facilities – using a share-shift and RS score methodology across municipalities between 2008/2009 and 2022/2023. The main objective is to assess the spatial distribution, accessibility, and performance of key social infrastructure indicators, with a particular focus on rural areas. By applying the RS framework, we quantify local impact, scenario stability, and the degree of convergence or divergence between rural and urban areas. The results reveal a dual trajectory. On the one hand, Bulgaria has achieved a structural shift toward near-universal access to healthcare, with self-reported unmet medical needs declining from 17% in 2009 to below 3% in 2024, and rural-urban disparities largely converging. On the other hand, the underlying health infrastructure remains unevenly distributed, with over two-thirds of municipalities classified as “constrict” or “adverse” in capacity and only 45% of rural residents within 15 minutes of a healthcare facility (compared to 60% in the EU). A similar pattern emerges in educational infrastructure. Urban areas maintain high levels of upper secondary and tertiary attainment, supported by denser networks of schools, whereas rural areas face school closures, longer travel times, and limited access to higher education. Over half of rural municipalities are rated “constrict” or “adverse” in educational infrastructure, reinforcing territorial disparities. Taken together, these findings depict Bulgaria’s social infrastructure as fragmented but improving. While access indicators have advanced, long-term sustainability requires structural investments in facilities, transport, and digital connectivity to ensure equitable, resilient social infrastructure nationwide.