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Recent Developments in the Intertemporal Modeling of Uncertainty

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  • Christian P. Traeger

    () (Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720)

Abstract

Time and uncertainty constitute essential ingredients to many of the most challenging resource problems. With respect to the time dimension, agents are generally assumed to have a pure time preference as well as a preference for smoothing consumption over time. With respect to risk, agents are generally assumed to be Arrow-Pratt risk averse. The discounted expected utility model assumes that aversion to risk and aversion to intertemporal fluctuations coincide. This review discusses models and concepts that aim at disentangling time and risk attitude and briefly sketches a generalization of risk attitude to situations where uncertainty is not captured by unique probability measures. This paper reviews resource economic applications and relates the concepts to the debate on the social discount rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian P. Traeger, 2009. "Recent Developments in the Intertemporal Modeling of Uncertainty," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 261-285, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:anr:reseco:v:1:y:2009:p:261-285
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Geoffrey Heal & Antony Millner, 2013. "Uncertainty and decision in climate change economics," GRI Working Papers 108, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    2. Christian Traeger, 2014. "A 4-Stated DICE: Quantitatively Addressing Uncertainty Effects in Climate Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 59(1), pages 1-37, September.
    3. Fleurbaey, Marc & Zuber, Stéphane, 2015. "Discounting, risk and inequality: A general approach," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 34-49.
    4. Kollenberg, Sascha & Taschini, Luca, 2016. "Emissions trading systems with cap adjustments," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 20-36.
    5. Jensen, Svenn & Traeger, Christian P., 2014. "Optimal climate change mitigation under long-term growth uncertainty: Stochastic integrated assessment and analytic findings," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 104-125.
    6. Kopp, Robert E. & Mignone, Bryan K., 2012. "The US government's social cost of carbon estimates after their first two years: Pathways for improvement," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 6, pages 1-41.
    7. Liu, Liqun, 2012. "Inferring the rate of pure time preference under uncertainty," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 27-33.
    8. Svenja Hector(), "undated". "Accounting for Different Uncertainties: Implications for Climate Investments?," Working Papers ETH-RC-13-007, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
    9. Millner, Antony & Dietz, Simon & Heal, Geoffrey, 2010. "Ambiguity and climate policy," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 37595, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Svenja Hector, 2013. "Accounting for Different Uncertainties: Implications for Climate Investments?," Working Papers 2013.107, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    11. repec:eee:jeeman:v:84:y:2017:i:c:p:1-17 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Kousky, Carolyn & Kopp, Robert E. & Cooke, Roger M., 2011. "Risk premia and the social cost of carbon: A review," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 5, pages 1-24.
    13. Kopp, Robert E. & Golub, Alexander & Keohane, Nathaniel O. & Onda, Chikara, 2011. "The influence of the specification of climate change damages on the social cost of carbon," Economics Discussion Papers 2011-22, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    14. Kopp, Robert E. & Golub, Alexander & Keohane, Nathaniel O. & Onda, Chikara, 2012. "The influence of the specification of climate change damages on the social cost of carbon," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 6, pages 1-40.
    15. Crost, Benjamin & Traeger, Christian P., 2011. "Risk and aversion in the integrated assessment of climate change," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt1562s275, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    16. Moritz Drupp & Mark Freeman & Ben Groom & Frikk Nesje, 2015. "Discounting disentangled: an expert survey on the determinants of the long-term social discount rate," GRI Working Papers 196a, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    17. Cameron Hepburn & Greer Gosnell, 2014. "Evaluating impacts in the distant future: cost–benefit analysis, discounting and the alternatives," Chapters,in: Handbook of Sustainable Development, chapter 9, pages 140-159 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Antony Millner & Simon Dietz & Geoffrey Heal, 2013. "Scientific Ambiguity and Climate Policy," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 55(1), pages 21-46, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ambiguity; intertemporal; recursive utility; risk aversion; social discount rate; time preference;

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • Q30 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - General

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