IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aiy/jnljtr/v9y2023i2p181-196.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Impact of Tax Structure on Economic Growth: New Empirical Evidence from Central and Eastern Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Desislava G. Stoilova

Abstract

This study aims to provide new evidence of the impact of total tax revenue and tax structure on economic growth in a sample of eleven European Union (EU) member states located in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), namely Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia. The methods used are description, comparison, synthesis, regression and correlation analysis of annual panel data for the period 2000-2021. The ordinary least squares (OLS) method is used to estimate the parameters of the regression models. The causal relationship between the variables is confirmed by the Granger causality test. The main results indicate that there is a significant negative effect of total government spending on economic growth rate, while the total tax revenue has a positive impact. These findings suggest low efficiency of public spending. The structure of tax systems does not seem to hinder economic growth, as both direct and indirect tax revenues show a positive growth-supporting effect. Only social security contributions are estimated to have a detrimental impact on economic growth. Value added tax and both income taxes (personal and corporate) are found to be growth-conductive, while property taxes and excise duties seem to have no significant impact on the growth rate. Based on the research findings it is obvious that government expenditure is not an effective tool for positive fiscal impact on the economy, so policymakers can support economic growth by decreasing the share of public spending in GDP or by increasing its efficiency. It is recommended to maintain the current ratio between direct and indirect tax revenue, while carefully considering changes to social security systems to promote sustainable and inclusive growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Desislava G. Stoilova, 2023. "The Impact of Tax Structure on Economic Growth: New Empirical Evidence from Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of Tax Reform, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 9(2), pages 181-196.
    • Handle: RePEc:aiy:jnljtr:v:9:y:2023:i:2:p:181-196
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.15826/jtr.2023.9.2.136
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journalaer.ru//fileadmin/user_upload/site_15907/2023/Stoilova.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/https://doi.org/10.15826/jtr.2023.9.2.136?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dackehag , Margareta & Hansson, Åsa, 2012. "Taxation of Income and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis of 25 Rich OECD Countries," Working Papers 2012:6, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    2. Jens Matthias Arnold, 2008. "Do Tax Structures Affect Aggregate Economic Growth?: Empirical Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 643, OECD Publishing.
    3. Gareth D. Myles, 2009. "Economic Growth and the Role of Taxation-Theory," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 713, OECD Publishing.
    4. António Afonso & João Tovar-Valles, 2011. "Economic Performance and Government Size," Working Papers Department of Economics 2011/21, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    5. Gustavo Canavire-Bacarreza & Jorge Martínez-Vázquez & Violeta Vulovic, 2013. "Taxation and Economic Growth in Latin America," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 81798, Inter-American Development Bank.
    6. Gareth D. Myles, 2009. "Economic Growth and the Role of Taxation - Disaggregate Data," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 715, OECD Publishing.
    7. Gareth D. Myles, 2009. "Economic Growth and the Role of Taxation - Aggregate Data," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 714, OECD Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Xiekui & Huang, Yihan & Fenglan Wei,, 2024. "The incentive effects of the macro tax burden on economic growth: A negative or positive incentive effect? Analysis based on panel data," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 128-147.
    2. Oladimeji Abeeb Olaniyi & Adewale Mathew Adekanmbi & Samson Adegboyega Opadeji & Amos Dauda Shallie, 2024. "Assessing the Impact of Infrastructure on Tax Structure and Improving Economic Performance: The Case of Nigeria," Journal of Applied Economic Research, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 23(3), pages 623-641.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Desislava Stoilova & Ivan Todorov, 2021. "Fiscal policy and economic growth: Evidence from Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of Tax Reform, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 7(2), pages 146-159.
    2. Aldieri, Luigi & Makkonen, Teemu & Paolo Vinci, Concetto, 2020. "Environmental knowledge spillovers and productivity: A patent analysis for large international firms in the energy, water and land resources fields," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    3. Dackehag, Margareta & Hansson, Åsa, 2015. "Taxation of Dividend Income and Economic Growth: The Case of Europe," Working Paper Series 1081, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    4. Desislava G. Stoilova, 2024. "Tax Structure and Economic Growth: New Empirical Evidence from the European Union," Journal of Tax Reform, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 10(2), pages 240-257.
    5. LEONIDA, Ionel, 2021. "An Attempt To Design A Fiscal Profile Of The Romanian Tax System," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 25(4), pages 88-98, December.
    6. Jean-Marc Fournier & Åsa Johansson, 2016. "The Effect of the Size and the Mix of Public Spending on Growth and Inequality," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1344, OECD Publishing.
    7. åsa Johansson & Christopher Heady & Jens Arnold & Bert Brys & Laura Vartia & Philip Spier, 2010. "Taxes and Firm Performance: Evidence from the OECD," Chapters, in: Iris Claus & Norman Gemmell & Michelle Harding & David White (ed.), Tax Reform in Open Economies, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Luigi, Bernardi, 2011. "Economic crisis and taxation in Europe," MPRA Paper 31007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Strohner, Ludwig & Thomas, Tobias, 2019. "Mehr Wachstum, Wohlstand und Beschäftigung: Ökonomische Effekte der Steuerreform 2020-23," Policy Notes 32, EcoAustria – Institute for Economic Research.
    10. Evgeny V. Balatsky & Natalia A. Ekimova, 2019. "Evaluating scenarios of a personal income tax reform in Russia," Journal of Tax Reform, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 5(1), pages 6-22.
    11. Thomas, Tobias & Berger, Johannes & Graf, Nikolaus & Strohner, Ludwig, 2017. "Volkswirtschaftliche Effekte unterschiedlicher Abgabensenkungen in Österreich," Policy Notes 19, EcoAustria – Institute for Economic Research.
    12. Doris Prammer, 2011. "Quality of taxation and the crisis: Tax shifts from a growth perspective," Taxation Papers 29, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
    13. Emilian DOBRESCU, 2016. "Controversies over the Size of the Public Budget," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-34, December.
    14. Evgeny V. Balatsky & Natalya A. Ekimova, 2019. "The Impact of Tax Reforms on the Behaviour of Economic Agents (Indirect Taxation in Russia and the USA)," Journal of Tax Reform, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 5(2), pages 129-147.
    15. Humberto Banda-Ortiz & Edgar Demetrio Tovar-García, 2018. "Impacto de la estructura tributaria sobre el crecimiento económico: el caso de México," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 13(4), pages 585-601, Octubre-D.
    16. Brendan O'Connor, 2013. "The Structure of Ireland’s Tax System and Options for Growth Enhancing Reform," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 44(4), pages 511-540.
    17. Teuta Balliu & Loreta Bebi, 2015. "Taxation and Government Expenditures in the Center of the Albanian Policy Debate," European Journal of Economics and Business Studies Articles, Revistia Research and Publishing, vol. 1, ejes_v1_i.
    18. Åsa Johansson, 2016. "Public Finance, Economic Growth and Inequality: A Survey of the Evidence," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1346, OECD Publishing.
    19. Bart Capéau & André Decoster & Stijn Van Houtven, 2024. "Piecemeal Modeling of the Effects of Joint Direct and Indirect Tax Reforms," Public Finance Review, , vol. 52(1), pages 111-149, January.
    20. Wolf, Rayan & Mohamed, Abdoulaye Aboubacari & Gomes, Fabrício Sepulveda & Gurgel, Angelo Costa & Teixeira, Erly c., 2021. "Impacts of a Tax Elimination on Consumption of Food and Agricultural Products in Brazil," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 314958, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    tax revenue; tax structure; economic growth; Central and Eastern Europe (CEE);
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aiy:jnljtr:v:9:y:2023:i:2:p:181-196. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Natalia Starodubets (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/seurfru.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.