Assessing the Risks of Employees Failing to Achieve the Organization's Performance Indicators when Implementing the Well-Being Program

The study was conducted within the framework of an urgent task of assessing the impact of external and internal environmental factors on the development of an organization's human capital and reducing the level of employee burnout through the prism of the formation and implementation of its corporate well-being program. The aim of the work is to develop a method for assessing the possible degree of deviation from the simulated progress towards achieving the target values of key performance indicators of the organization's employees based on the formation of an optimal structure for the distribution of investments in the areas of the well-being program. To achieve this goal, a hypothesis is put forward about the possibility of building a tool that makes it possible to assess possible degrees of deviation of the achieved employee performance indicators from those predicted by the optimization model and ranking by the strength of the influence of internal and external risks on these deviations. The proposed method consists of a simulation model based on the Monte Carlo method and an algorithm for quantifying risks. The algorithm consists of 3 stages: generation of realizations of optimization model parameters considered as random variables; building a sample of the values of the resulting indicators: the optimal structure of investment in the areas of the well-being program, an integral indicator of the effectiveness of the organization; calculating the risks of not achieving the target values of key employee performance indicators from the resulting sample. When testing the method, the uncertainties of the values of parameters of 4 types are considered: coefficients of econometric dependencies of influence channels; bounds of the intervals of gradient constancy of piecewise linear functions; bounds of categories of integral indicators; restrictions on the top of the total volume of investments in the directions. The testing showed that uncertainties of econometric dependencies and category bounds have the greatest impact on the magnitude of risks of failure to achieve key employee performance indicators. From a practical point of view, the proposed tool will allow us to assess the impact of various factors of the external and internal environment on the progress towards achieving key employee performance indicators by developing employee competence and reducing their burnout, which occurs as a result of the implementation of the corporate well-being program. Based on the assessment of this impact, it is possible to select measures that will help to mitigate the existing risks.