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General Patterns and Drivers of Changes in Employment Structure: Evidence from Five European Countries

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  • Larysa Yakymova

Abstract

This paper seeks to answer whether the general patterns and drivers of the sectoral employment shifts depend on a country’s level of development. To accomplish this, we examined employment in Germany, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Ukraine at the national level (1998-2018) using econometric analysis, and at the regional NUTS2 level (2009-2018) using shift-share analysis. We obtained evidence that the general trend is the service sector expansion. Using the ARDL approach and the Granger causality test, we identified long-run unidirectional causality running from income proxies to employment in services in all countries except Romania, where the opposite causality was found. We revealed that household income moderates the impact of urbanization on service sector growth in all countries except Poland. At the regional level, the change in the employment rate in services is explained by the national growth effect and slightly by the industry-mix effect if the active phase of structural changes is completed. JEL Codes - J21; O14; R11; R15; C32

Suggested Citation

  • Larysa Yakymova, 2020. "General Patterns and Drivers of Changes in Employment Structure: Evidence from Five European Countries," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 67(3), pages 333-362, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:aic:saebjn:v:67:y:2020:i:3:p:333-362:n:172
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    sectoral employment; ARDL bounds test; Granger causality; moderation effect; shift-share analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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