IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ahs/journl/v10y2025i1p1-26.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Dynamics of Output Gap Hysteresis in Türkiye

Author

Listed:
  • Koray YILDIRIM
  • Neşe ALGAN
  • Harun BAL

Abstract

The aim of this study is to identify the dynamics and hysteresis of the output gap. First, the existence of an output gap in the Turkish economy for the period 2005Q4:2021Q3 is determined using the Hodrick-Prescott and Baxter-King methods, and then the structural break procedure, which is widely used in the literature, is applied to detect hysteresis. The presence of a structural break supports the existence of hysteresis in the output gap. In addition, a structural VAR model is estimated with money supply, capacity utilization rate, and capital productivity variables as components of the output gap. While the empirical evidence points to the role of capacity utilization and productivity variables in explaining hysteresis, capacity utilization shocks are relatively stronger determinants of output gap hysteresis. For future studies, the effect of money supply on capacity utilization and productivity, labor productivity, etc., should be monitored. The novelty of the study is the modeling of hysteresis in a structure that includes demand-side and supply-side components. This innovation allows it to act as a guide for policymaking by taking into account the dynamic conditions appropriate to the nature of hysteresis beyond the static situation, such as the detection of hysteresis in the literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Koray YILDIRIM & Neşe ALGAN & Harun BAL, 2025. "The Dynamics of Output Gap Hysteresis in Türkiye," Journal of Research in Economics, Politics & Finance, Ersan ERSOY, vol. 10(1), pages 1-26.
    • Handle: RePEc:ahs:journl:v:10:y:2025:i:1:p:1-26
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.1576481
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/4327664
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.1576481?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sushant Acharya & Julien Bengui & Keshav Dogra & Shu Lin Wee, 2022. "Slow Recoveries and Unemployment Traps: Monetary Policy in a Time of Hysteresis," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(646), pages 2007-2047.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Consolo, Agostino & Koester, Gerrit & Nickel, Christiane & Porqueddu, Mario & Smets, Frank, 2021. "The need for an inflation buffer in the ECB’s price stability objective – the role of nominal rigidities and inflation differentials," Occasional Paper Series 279, European Central Bank.
    2. Garga, Vaishali & Singh, Sanjay R., 2021. "Output hysteresis and optimal monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 871-886.
    3. Felipe Alves & Giovanni L. Violante, 2024. "From Micro to Macro Hysteresis: Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy," Staff Working Papers 24-39, Bank of Canada.
    4. Abbritti, Mirko & Consolo, Agostino & Weber, Sebastian, 2021. "Endogenous growth, downward wage rigidity and optimal inflation," Working Paper Series 2635, European Central Bank.
    5. Cecion, Martina & Coenen, Günter & Gerke, Rafael & Le Bihan, Hervé & Motto, Roberto & Aguilar, Pablo & Ajevskis, Viktors & Giesen, Sebastian & Albertazzi, Ugo & Gilbert, Niels & Al-Haschimi, Alexander, 2021. "The ECB’s price stability framework: past experience, and current and future challenges," Occasional Paper Series 269, European Central Bank.
    6. Wolfgang Lechthaler & Mewael F. Tesfaselassie, 2023. "Endogenous Growth, Skill Obsolescence, and Output Hysteresis in a New Keynesian Model with Unemployment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(8), pages 2187-2213, December.
    7. Sadaba, Barbara & Vujić, Sunčica & Maier, Sofia, 2024. "Characterizing the schooling cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    8. He, Chao & Fan, Xiaodong, 2024. "The paradox of search intensity," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    9. Yumeng Gu & Sanjay R. Singh, 2024. "Distribution of Market Power, Endogenous Growth, and Monetary Policy," Working Paper Series 2024-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    10. Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2021. "Endogenous growth, skill obsolescence and fiscal multipliers," Kiel Working Papers 2184, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    11. Potter, Tristan, 2024. "Destabilizing search technology," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    12. Fatás, Antonio & Singh, Sanjay R., 2024. "Supply or demand? Policy makers’ confusion in the presence of hysteresis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    13. Simona Malovana & Josef Bajzik & Dominika Ehrenbergerova & Jan Janku, 2020. "A Prolonged Period of Low Interest Rates: Unintended Consequences," Research and Policy Notes 2020/02, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    14. Shunsuke Haba & Yuichiro Ito & Shogo Nakano & Takahiro Yamanaka, 2024. "Assessing the Long-Term Impact of Monetary Policy," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 24-E-19, Bank of Japan.
    15. Donald Coletti, 2023. "A Blueprint for the Fourth Generation of Bank of Canada Projection and Policy Analysis Models," Discussion Papers 2023-23, Bank of Canada.
    16. Hazell, Jonathon & Taska, Bledi, 2023. "Downward Rigidity in the Wage for New Hires," IZA Discussion Papers 16512, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Simona Malovaná & Josef Bajzík & Dominika Ehrenbergerová & Jan Janků, 2023. "A prolonged period of low interest rates in Europe: Unintended consequences," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 526-572, April.
    18. Prein, Timm, 2019. "Persistent Unemployment, Sovereign Debt Crises, and the Impact of Haircuts," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203654, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association, revised 2019.
    19. Ross Doppelt, 2019. "Skill Flows: A Theory of Human Capital and Unemployment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 31, pages 84-122, January.
    20. Jonathon Hazell & Bledi Taska, 2020. "Downward Rigidity in the Wage for New Hires," Discussion Papers 2028, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Output Gap; Hysteresis; Structural Break; Structural VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ahs:journl:v:10:y:2025:i:1:p:1-26. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ersan Ersoy (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://epfjournal.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.