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An Evaluation Of Econometric Models Of U.S. Farmland Prices

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  • Pope, Rulon D.
  • Kramer, Randall A.
  • Green, Richard D.
  • Gardner, B. Delworth

Abstract

Previously published empirical models of U.S. farmland prices are reviewed and reestimated including recent data. It is apparent that structural changes have occurred. A simple single equation econometric model with less economic structure appears to forecast better than a simultaneous equation model. Finally, Box-Jenkins forecasts are roughly as good as those based upon a simultaneous equation econometric model, but somewhat inferior to the single equation model. The results suggest that further research may be needed to explain recent movements of farmland prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Pope, Rulon D. & Kramer, Randall A. & Green, Richard D. & Gardner, B. Delworth, 1979. "An Evaluation Of Econometric Models Of U.S. Farmland Prices," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 4(1), pages 1-14, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:wjagec:32436
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.32436
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    Cited by:

    1. Flowers, Gwendolyn G., 1983. "An economic analysis of the relation of farm land values and returns," ISU General Staff Papers 198301010800009469, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    2. Fiske, John Robery, 1983. "The impact of financial constraints on the local price of farm land," ISU General Staff Papers 198301010800008710, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    3. Gertel, Karl, 1985. "Differing Effects of Farm Commodity Programs on Land Returns and Land Values," Agricultural Economic Reports 307999, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    4. Jean Cavailhès & Alban Richard & Nathalie Taverdet, 1996. "Des rentes classiques aux options de rentes. Une analyse de l'évolution du prix des terres en France," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 47(4), pages 963-981.
    5. Robinson, Lindon J. & Siles, Marcelo E., 1999. "Social capital and household income distributions in the United States: 1980, 1990," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 43-93.
    6. Robison, Lindon J. & Colyer, Dale, 1994. "Reflections On Relevance Of Professional Journals," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 26(1), pages 1-16, July.
    7. Shalit, Haim & Schmitz, Andrew, 1984. "Farmland Price Behavior And Credit Allocation," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 9(2), pages 1-11, December.
    8. Gertel, Karl & Atkinson, Linda, 1993. "Structural Models and Automated Alternatives for Forecasting Farmland Prices," Technical Bulletins 156756, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    9. Johnson, James William, 1985. "Land prices: changes and variability: the effect on Iowa grain farms," ISU General Staff Papers 1985010108000017533, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    10. Patrick de Fontnouvelle & Sergio H. Lence, 2002. "Transaction Costs and the Present Value “Puzzle” of Farmland Prices," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 68(3), pages 549-565, January.
    11. Zakrzewicz, Christopher J. & Brorsen, B. Wade & Briggeman, Brian C., 2013. "Accuracy of Qualitative Forecasts of Farmland Values from the Federal Reserve's Land Value Survey," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(1), pages 159-170, February.
    12. B. James Deaton & Chad Lawley, 2022. "A survey of literature examining farmland prices: A Canadian focus," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 70(2), pages 95-121, June.
    13. Pinto, Allan & Griffin, Terry W., 2022. "Detecting bubbles via single time-series variable: applying spatial specification tests to farmland values," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322534, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    14. Widdows, Richard & Doll, John P., 1982. "Four Econometric Models of the U. S. Farmland Market: An Updating with Comparisons," Staff Reports 276744, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    15. Chen, Y. & Chen, K. & Zhong, F., 2018. "Farm Subsidy and Farmland Cash Rent under Rapid Urbanization: Evidence from Chinese Farm Household Panel 2004-2013," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277513, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    16. Lowenberg-DeBoer, James M., 1985. "The impact of farmland price changes on farm size, financial structure enterprise choice," ISU General Staff Papers 198501010800009722, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.

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    Keywords

    Land Economics/Use;

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