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Selecting The "Best" Prediction Model: An Application To Agricultural Cooperatives

  • Rambaldi, Alicia N.
  • Zapata, Hector O.
  • Christy, Ralph D.

A credit scoring function incorporating statistical selection criteria was proposed to evaluate the credit worthiness of agricultural cooperative loans in the Fifth Farm Credit District. In-sample (1981-1986) and out-of-sample (1988) prediction performance of the selected models were evaluated using rank transformation discriminant analysis, logit, and probit. Results indicate superior out-of-sample performance for the management oriented approach relative to classification of unacceptable loans, and poor performance of the rank transformation in out-of-sample prediction.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30380
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Article provided by Southern Agricultural Economics Association in its journal Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics.

Volume (Year): 24 (1992)
Issue (Month): 01 (July)
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:ags:sojoae:30380
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.saea.org/jaae/jaae.htm

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  1. Collins, Robert A. & Green, Richard D., 1982. "Statistical methods for bankruptcy forecasting," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 349-354.
  2. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1981. "Qualitative Response Models: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 1483-1536, December.
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