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The Agricultural Risk Management Simulator Microcomputer Program


  • King, Robert P.
  • Black, J. Roy
  • Benson, Fred J.
  • Pavkov, Patti A.


The Agricultural Risk Management Simulator (ARMS) is a microcomputer program designed to help users evaluate strategies for managing yield and price risk in crop farming operations. Risk management strategies are defined by choices regarding crop mix, the purchase of multiple peril crop insurance, and the use of forward contracting. Probabilistic budgeting is used to determine the net cash flow probability distribution for each strategy considered. Flexibility with regard to both sources of probabilistic information and the form of yield and price probability distributions is a noteworthy feature of the program.

Suggested Citation

  • King, Robert P. & Black, J. Roy & Benson, Fred J. & Pavkov, Patti A., 1988. "The Agricultural Risk Management Simulator Microcomputer Program," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 20(02), December.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:sojoae:29259

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. King, Robert P. & Fackler, Paul L., 1985. "Probabilistic Price Forecasts Based On Commodity Option Values," Staff Papers 14030, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    2. King, Robert P., 1979. "Operational Techniques for Applied Decision Analysis Under Uncertainty," AAEA Fellows - Dissertations and Theses, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, number 181951.
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    Cited by:

    1. Richardson, James W. & Klose, Steven L. & Gray, Allan W., 2000. "An Applied Procedure For Estimating And Simulating Multivariate Empirical (Mve) Probability Distributions In Farm-Level Risk Assessment And Policy Analysis," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 32(02), August.
    2. Ralston, Roger E. & Knight, Thomas O. & Coble, Keith H. & Lippke, Lawrence A., 1990. "The Wheat And Stocker Cattle Analyzer: A Microcomputer Decision Aid For Evaluating Wheat Production And Stocker Cattle Grazing Decisions," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 22(01), July.
    3. Trapp, James N., 1989. "A Commodity Market Simulation Game For Teaching Market Risk Management," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 21(01), July.
    4. Ludena, Carlos E. & McNamara, Kevin T. & Hammer, P. Allen & Foster, Kenneth A., 2003. "Development Of A Stochastic Model To Evaluate Plant Growers' Enterprise Budgets," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 21942, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

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