IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/polgne/356838.html

Slowdown of the Polish Economy: Model-Based Simulations

Author

Listed:
  • Welfe, Władysław
  • Florczak, Waldemar

Abstract

The global financial crisis, and especially the recession that spread across Europe in 2009, also affected Poland. While the Polish economy continued to grow throughout 2009, its growth decelerated considerably in quarterly terms. The paper examines the determinants of the slowdown, based on a simulation macroeconomic model called W8D-2007. The model’s properties are briefly outlined, and then a baseline medium-term forecast is introduced and some simulation exercises are shown, dealing mainly with pessimistic scenarios. By means of simulations based on the W8D model, the paper tries to show the key factors behind the serious slowdown in the Polish economy in 2009. The model examines the impact of declining exports and FDI, on the one hand, and the growing investment risk and positive changes in household consumption, on the other. The possible impact of fiscal and monetary policies is also examined. The effects of a reduction of income tax rates and social contribution rates as well as the implications of an increased budget deficit are also shown, and finally the impact of declining interest rates on investment and consumer demand is evaluated. The likely effects of measures aimed at constraining the increase of unemployment rates are also analyzed. The results are compared with changing forecasts for the Polish economy presented during 2009.

Suggested Citation

  • Welfe, Władysław & Florczak, Waldemar, . "Slowdown of the Polish Economy: Model-Based Simulations," Gospodarka Narodowa-The Polish Journal of Economics, Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie / SGH Warsaw School of Economics, vol. 2010(9).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:polgne:356838
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.356838
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/356838/files/Florczak.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.356838?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ronald G. Bodkin & Lawrence R. Klein & Kanta Marwah, 1991. "A History of Macroeconometric Model-Building," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 51.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. De Vroey Michel & Duarte Pedro Garcia, 2013. "In search of lost time: the neoclassical synthesis," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 965-995, January.
    2. Cheng Hsiao, 2016. "Panel Macroeconometric Modeling," Working Papers 2016-02-21, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    3. F. Gerard Adams & Byron Gangnes & Shuntaro Shishido, 1994. "Macro and Industry Implications of Voluntary Export Restraints on US-Japan Trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(5), pages 737-757, September.
    4. Acosta, Juan & Rancan, Antonella & Sergi, Francesco, 2022. "Centralised and Decentralised Approaches to Multi-Country Macroeconometric Modelling at the Commission of the European Communities: The Short-Lived EUROLINK Model," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp22081, University of Molise, Department of Economics.
    5. Robert Boyer, 1992. "La crise de la macroéconomie, une conséquence de la méconnaissance des institutions?," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 68(1), pages 43-68.
    6. F. J. H. Don & J. P. Verbruggen, 2006. "Models and methods for economic policy: 60 years of evolution at CPB," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 60(2), pages 145-170, May.
    7. repec:osf:osfxxx:qxh46_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Bjerkholt, Olav, 2014. "Lawrence R. Klein 1920–2013: Notes on the early years," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 767-784.
    9. Aurelien Goutsmedt & Erich Pinzon-Fuchs & Matthieu Renault & Francesco Sergi, 2019. "Reacting to the Lucas Critique: The Keynesians' Replies," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 51(3), pages 535-556, June.
    10. Aris Spanos & Niki Papadopoulou, 2013. "A Small Macroeconometric Model for the Cyprus Economy," Working Papers 2013-02, Central Bank of Cyprus.
    11. Christopher L. Gilbert & Duo Qin, 2005. "The First Fifty Years of Modern Econometrics," Working Papers 544, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    12. Erich Pinz√≥n-Fuchs, 2018. "Lawrence R. Klein and the making of large-scale macro-econometric modeling, 1938-1955," Documentos CEDE 16161, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    13. Robert W. Dimand, 2019. "The Cowles Commission and Foundation for Research in Economics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2207, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    14. Aleksander Welfe & Piotr Karp, 2017. "Makroekonometryczny miesięczny model gospodarki Polski WM-1," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 4, pages 5-38.
    15. Władysław Welfe & Waldemar Florczak, 2010. "Slowdown of the Polish Economy: Model-Based Simulations," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 9, pages 47-64.
    16. Qadri, Faisal Sultan & Waheed, Abdul, 2014. "Human capital and economic growth: A macroeconomic model for Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 66-76.
    17. Jaanika Meriküll, 2004. "Macroeconometric Modelling of the Estonian Economy," University of Tartu - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, in: Modelling the Economies of the Baltic Sea Region, volume 17, chapter 5, pages 138-166, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Tartu (Estonia).
    18. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502.
    19. Aurélien Goutsmedt & Erich Pinzon-Fuchs & Matthieu Renault & Francesco Sergi, 2015. "Criticizing the Lucas Critique: Macroeconometricians' Response to Robert Lucas," Post-Print halshs-01179114, HAL.
    20. Valadkhani, Abbas, 1997. "Simulation of Aggregate Demand Impacts on the Sectoral Value Added in the Iranian Economy," MPRA Paper 50385, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Robert W. Dimand, 2020. "Macroeconomic dynamics at the Cowles Commission from the 1930s to the 1950s," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(4), pages 564-581, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:polgne:356838. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/irsghpl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.