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Bankers' Forecasts of Farmland Values: A Qualitative and Quantitative Evaluation

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  • Kuethe, Todd H.
  • Hubbs, Todd

Abstract

This study evaluates the farmland price forecasts provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's Land Values and Credit Conditions Survey from 1991: quarter 1 (Q1) through 2016: Q1. Prior studies have demonstrated that similar surveys of agricultural bankers provide accurate predictions of the direction of future farm real estate values through qualitative forecast evaluation. This study extends the existing knowledge base by converting the qualitative responses to quantitative expectations. The quantified expectations are then subjected to additional forecast optimality tests, which suggest that the forecasts are unbiased but inefficient.

Suggested Citation

  • Kuethe, Todd H. & Hubbs, Todd, 2017. "Bankers' Forecasts of Farmland Values: A Qualitative and Quantitative Evaluation," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 49(4), September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:joaaec:355369
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.355369
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nickerson, Cynthia & Morehart, Mitchell & Kuethe, Todd & Beckman, Jayson & Ifft, Jennifer & Williams, Ryan, 2012. "Trends in U.S. Farmland Values and Ownership," Economic Information Bulletin 291935, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
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    Keywords

    Agricultural Finance;

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