IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/ajfand/340692.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessment of population dynamics and forest cover change in Yumba district, Uganda

Author

Listed:
  • Alule, RJ
  • Nuwategeka, E
  • Oriangi, G

Abstract

Sub-Saharan Africa is well endowed with both renewable and non-renewable natural resources critical in supporting several forms of development on the continent. Key among these is natural forest resources. However, the population explosion in sub-Saharan Africa in general and Uganda, in particular, is threatening the survival of these forests due to the associated increasing demand for food, fodder, energy, and land for settlement. The study was conducted in Yumbe district where the forests considered included woodland and bushland since tropical high forests have been depleted or degraded by human activities. We used a predictive model to map future forest cover loss amidst the rapidly increasing population in Yumbe district in Uganda. Specifically, the study analyzed the relationship between population dynamics and forest cover change to predict future forest cover changes. To analyze changes in forest cover, the study utilized Landsat satellite imagery for 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2021; while the population data for the respective years was obtained from the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS). To explain the role of anthropogenic forces on forest cover change, the study considered different land use types as explanatory variables: planted forests, subsistence farmland, built-up areas, and other land use types. It then explored the interactions between these variables and forest cover change in the study area. Population-forest cover change model was developed to evaluate three decades of population and trends of forest cover to predict forest cover for 2032. The results indicate that in the three decades, the population increased by more than sixfold, and land area under subsistence agriculture, a proxy of population increased by 195.2%, but the forest cover declined by 80.3%. It is predicted that the forest cover will be lost completely by 2032 when the population reaches an estimated 838,078 from the current 657,430 people. This study, therefore, recommends that off-land employment opportunities such as tourism, apiary, transport, and manufacturing industries should be expanded in order to save forest resources from spatially extensive agricultural land uses.

Suggested Citation

  • Alule, RJ & Nuwategeka, E & Oriangi, G, 2023. "Assessment of population dynamics and forest cover change in Yumba district, Uganda," African Journal of Food, Agriculture, Nutrition and Development (AJFAND), African Journal of Food, Agriculture, Nutrition and Development (AJFAND), vol. 23(5), May.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ajfand:340692
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.340692
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/340692/files/Alule.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.340692?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Megersa Kebede Leta & Tamene Adugna Demissie & Jens Tränckner, 2021. "Modeling and Prediction of Land Use Land Cover Change Dynamics Based on Land Change Modeler (LCM) in Nashe Watershed, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-24, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sophie Thiam & Eric Ariel L. Salas & Nina Rholan Hounguè & Adrian Delos Santos Almoradie & Sarah Verleysdonk & Julien G. Adounkpe & Kossi Komi, 2022. "Modelling Land Use and Land Cover in the Transboundary Mono River Catchment of Togo and Benin Using Markov Chain and Stakeholder’s Perspectives," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-22, March.
    2. Jie Chen & Ruijie Shi & Geng Sun & Ya Guo & Min Deng & Xiuyuan Zhang, 2023. "Simulation-Based Optimization of the Urban Thermal Environment through Local Climate Zones Reorganization in Changsha City, China with the FLUS Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-28, August.
    3. Belay Z. Abate & Tewodros T. Assefa & Tibebe B. Tigabu & Wubneh B. Abebe & Li He, 2023. "Hydrological Modeling of the Kobo-Golina River in the Data-Scarce Upper Danakil Basin, Ethiopia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-23, February.
    4. Yajun Ma & Ping Zhang & Kaixu Zhao & Yong Zhou & Sidong Zhao, 2022. "A Dynamic Performance and Differentiation Management Policy for Urban Construction Land Use Change in Gansu, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-31, June.
    5. Sujarwo & Aditya Nugraha Putra & Raden Arief Setyawan & Heitor Mancini Teixeira & Uma Khumairoh, 2022. "Forecasting Rice Status for a Food Crisis Early Warning System Based on Satellite Imagery and Cellular Automata in Malang, Indonesia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-14, July.
    6. Urgessa Kenea & Dereje Adeba & Motuma Shiferaw Regasa & Michael Nones, 2021. "Hydrological Responses to Land Use Land Cover Changes in the Fincha’a Watershed, Ethiopia," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-23, August.
    7. Yang Zhang & Nazhalati Naerkezi & Yun Zhang & Bo Wang, 2024. "Multi-Scenario Land Use/Cover Change and Its Impact on Carbon Storage Based on the Coupled GMOP-PLUS-InVEST Model in the Hexi Corridor, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-22, February.
    8. Ankita Gupta, 2024. "Analyzing Land Use/Land Cover Dynamics in Mountain Tourism Areas: A Case Study of the Core and Buffer Zones of Sagarmatha and Khaptad National Parks, Nepal," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(23), pages 1-27, December.
    9. Bhatia, Samarth Y. & Gadiya, Kirtesh & Patil, Gopal R. & Krishna Mohan, Buddhiraju, 2024. "Thresholding-based cellular automata for transportation network derived future urban growth patterns in a peri-urban area," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 40-55.
    10. Yuefan Duan & Abudureheman Halike & Jianmei Luo & Kaixuan Yao & Lei Yao & Hua Tang & Buweiayixiemu Tuheti, 2024. "Multi-Scale Supply and Demand Relationships of Ecosystem Services Under Multiple Scenarios and Ecological Zoning to Promote Sustainable Urban Ecological Development in Arid Regions of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(22), pages 1-21, November.
    11. Sonu Thaivalappil Sukumaran & Stephen J. Birkinshaw, 2024. "Investigating the Impact of Recent and Future Urbanization on Flooding in an Indian River Catchment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-22, July.
    12. Mesfin Sahle & Nico R. Almarines & Shruti Ashish Lahoti & Cristino L. Tiburan & Juan M. Pulhin & Osamu Saito, 2025. "Exploring the Interplay Between Food Provision and Habitat Quality Assessment for Sustainable Coexistence in the Bioproduction Systems of the Philippines," Resources, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-23, March.
    13. Nematollah Kohestani & Shafagh Rastgar & Ghodratolla Heydari & Shaban Shataee Jouibary & Hamid Amirnejad, 2024. "Spatiotemporal modeling of the value of carbon sequestration under changing land use/land cover using InVEST model: a case study of Nour-rud Watershed, Northern Iran," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(6), pages 14477-14505, June.
    14. Yecheng He & Weicheng Wu & Xinyuan Xie & Xinxin Ke & Yifei Song & Cuimin Zhou & Wenjing Li & Yuan Li & Rong Jing & Peixia Song & Linqian Fu & Chunlian Mao & Meng Xie & Sicheng Li & Aohui Li & Xiaoping, 2023. "Land Use/Cover Change Prediction Based on a New Hybrid Logistic-Multicriteria Evaluation-Cellular Automata-Markov Model Taking Hefei, China as an Example," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-27, October.
    15. Haile Belay & Assefa M. Melesse & Getachew Tegegne, 2024. "Scenario-Based Land Use and Land Cover Change Detection and Prediction Using the Cellular Automata–Markov Model in the Gumara Watershed, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-34, March.
    16. René Ulloa-Espíndola & Susana Martín-Fernández, 2021. "Simulation and Analysis of Land Use Changes Applying Cellular Automata in the South of Quito and the Machachi Valley, Province of Pichincha, Ecuador," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-25, August.
    17. Hailay Hagos Entahabu & Amare Sewnet Minale & Emiru Birhane, 2023. "Modeling and Predicting Land Use/Land Cover Change Using the Land Change Modeler in the Suluh River Basin, Northern Highlands of Ethiopia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-15, May.
    18. Ritu Singh & Suresh Chand Rai & Prabuddh Kumar Mishra & Kamal Abdelrahman & Mohammed S. Fnais, 2024. "Analysis and Future Projections of Land Use and Land Cover Changes in the Hindon River Basin, India Using the CA-Markov Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(23), pages 1-21, December.
    19. Muhammad Mohiuddin & Jawad Ali & Megersa Kebede Leta & Muhammad Waseem & Muhammad Irshad & Zahid Hussain, 2021. "Estimation of Iodine Leaching in Soil Amended with Organic and Inorganic Materials Using HYDRUS 1-D Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-13, October.
    20. Motuma Shiferaw Regasa & Michael Nones, 2022. "Past and Future Land Use/Land Cover Changes in the Ethiopian Fincha Sub-Basin," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-20, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Environmental Economics and Policy;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:ajfand:340692. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.ajfand.net/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.