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Oil Demand in the Developing World: Lessons from the 1980s Applied to the 1990s

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  • Carol Dahl
  • Meftun Erdogan

Abstract

Oil consumption in the developing world increased 37% over the decade of the 1980s. The 1990s promise to be more dynamic yet. In this paper we trace the evolution of these changes in the 1980s for Asia, Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East. Econometric work is used to determine how well growth in income, prices, and population explained growth in the 1980s, comparing forecasted with actual values for 1990. We find that the forecasts are quite good at the global level while consideration of additional facts such as urbanization, vehicle stocks, balance of payments, interfuel substitution, and industrialization helps explain some of the regional variation. The econometric estimates along with a discussion of other variables are used to forecast consumption to the year 2000. The forecasts suggest that growth in oil product consumption during the 1990s is likely to be at least double that of the 1980s with Asia leading the way.

Suggested Citation

  • Carol Dahl & Meftun Erdogan, 1994. "Oil Demand in the Developing World: Lessons from the 1980s Applied to the 1990s," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 69-85.
    • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:1994si-a04
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    Cited by:

    1. Ghosh, Sajal & Kanjilal, Kakali, 2014. "Long-term equilibrium relationship between urbanization, energy consumption and economic activity: Empirical evidence from India," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 324-331.
    2. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Loganathan, Nanthakumar & Muzaffar, Ahmed Taneem & Ahmed, Khalid & Ali Jabran, Muhammad, 2016. "How urbanization affects CO2 emissions in Malaysia? The application of STIRPAT model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 83-93.
    3. Bakirtas, Tahsin & Akpolat, Ahmet Gokce, 2018. "The relationship between energy consumption, urbanization, and economic growth in new emerging-market countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 110-121.
    4. Franco, Sainu & Mandla, Venkata Ravibabu & Ram Mohan Rao, K., 2017. "Urbanization, energy consumption and emissions in the Indian context A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 898-907.
    5. Liu, Yaobin, 2009. "Exploring the relationship between urbanization and energy consumption in China using ARDL (autoregressive distributed lag) and FDM (factor decomposition model)," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 1846-1854.
    6. Ahmed, Khalid, 2015. "The sheer scale of China’s urban renewal and CO2 emissions: Multiple structural breaks, long-run relationship and short-run dynamics," MPRA Paper 71035, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Wang, Qiang & Wu, Shi-dai & Zeng, Yue-e & Wu, Bo-wei, 2016. "Exploring the relationship between urbanization, energy consumption, and CO2 emissions in different provinces of China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 1563-1579.
    8. Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2006. "The causality relationship between energy consumption and GDP in G-11 countries revisited," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1086-1093, June.
    9. Holtedahl, Pernille & Joutz, Frederick L., 2004. "Residential electricity demand in Taiwan," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 201-224, March.
    10. Yabo Zhao & Shaojian Wang, 2015. "The Relationship between Urbanization, Economic Growth and Energy Consumption in China: An Econometric Perspective Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(5), pages 1-19, May.
    11. Wang, Qiang, 2014. "Effects of urbanisation on energy consumption in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 332-339.
    12. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Loganathan, Nanthakumar & Sbia, Rashid & Afza, Talat, 2015. "The effect of urbanization, affluence and trade openness on energy consumption: A time series analysis in Malaysia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 683-693.
    13. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Chaudhary, A.R. & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2017. "Does urbanization cause increasing energy demand in Pakistan? Empirical evidence from STIRPAT model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 83-93.

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    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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