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Oil Demand in the Industrialized Countries

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  • Joyce Dargay
  • Dermot Gately

Abstract

This paper surveys OECD energy and oil demand over the past three decades, analyzing the different paths of transportation oil, non-transportation oil, and non-oil energy-both over time, and relative to income growth. We review both the OECD as a whole, and make regional comparisons within the OECD. We focus especially on the price-irreversibility of oil demand: why oil demand has not surged now that oil prices have returned to pre-1974 levels. Among our conclusions are the following. Mere has been an asymmetric, smaller demand response to the price decreases of the 1980s than to the price increases of the 1970s. We expect a smaller demand response to future price increases than to those of the 1970s. The demand response to future income growth will be not substantially smaller than in the past. Finally, given the prospect of growing dependence on OPEC oil, in the event of a major disruption the lessened responsiveness of demand to price increases could cause dramatic price increases and serious macroeconomic effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Joyce Dargay & Dermot Gately, 1994. "Oil Demand in the Industrialized Countries," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 39-67.
  • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:1994si-a03
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Christiane Baumeister & Gert Peersman, 2013. "Time-Varying Effects of Oil Supply Shocks on the US Economy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 1-28, October.
    2. repec:zbw:rwirep:0276 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Dermot Gately & Hiliard G. Huntington, 2002. "The Asymmetric Effects of Changes in Price and Income on Energy and Oil Demand," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 19-55.
    4. Manuel Frondel and Colin Vance, 2013. "Re-Identifying the Rebound: What About Asymmetry?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    5. Sorrell, Steve & Dimitropoulos, John, 2008. "The rebound effect: Microeconomic definitions, limitations and extensions," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 636-649, April.
    6. Greene, David L, 1998. "Why CAFE worked," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 595-613, July.
    7. de Vries, Bert & Janssen, Marco & Beusen, Arthur, 1999. "Perspectives on global energy futures: simulations with the TIME model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 477-494, August.
    8. Dargay, Joyce & Gately, Dermot, 1995. "The imperfect price reversibility of non-transport oil demand in the OECD," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 59-71, January.
    9. Sorrell, Steve & Dimitropoulos, John & Sommerville, Matt, 2009. "Empirical estimates of the direct rebound effect: A review," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1356-1371, April.
    10. Manuel Frondel & Colin Vance, 2011. "Re-Identifying the Rebound – What About Asymmetry?," Ruhr Economic Papers 0276, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    11. Huntington, Hillard G., 2011. "Backcasting U.S. oil demand over a turbulent decade," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5674-5680, September.
    12. Huntington, Hillard G., 2010. "Short- and long-run adjustments in U.S. petroleum consumption," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 63-72, January.
    13. Greene, David L & Jones, Donald W & Leiby, Paul N, 1998. "The outlook for US oil dependence," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 55-69, January.

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    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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