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Are There Useful Lessons from the 1990-91Oil Price Shock?


  • John A. Tatom


Following Iraqs invasion of Kuwait, oil prices temporarily doubled. This paper examines the hypothesis that the U.S. economy had changed following previous oil price shocks, so that the 1990 oil price rise (and its subsequent decline) had smaller effects than previously. It also examines a related hypothesis that such a transitory oil price hike would have little or no macroeconomic effect. It surveys and rejects arguments for a reduced impact of oil price shocks and for hysteresis. The article argues that recent experience was comparable in magnitude to earlier shocks and that there were comparable macroeconomic developments and changes in the composition of output. The paper concludes with a test of the effect of energy prices on the misery index and shows that recent changes in misery are consistent with previous experience.

Suggested Citation

  • John A. Tatom, 1993. "Are There Useful Lessons from the 1990-91Oil Price Shock?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 129-150.
  • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:1993v14-04-a09

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Walls, W. David, 1993. "A Cointegration Rank Test of Market Linkages with an Application to the U.S. Natural Gas Industry," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt6sj0961h, University of California Transportation Center.
    5. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
    6. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    7. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:energy:v:139:y:2017:i:c:p:975-990 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Jbir, Rafik & Zouari-Ghorbel, Sonia, 2009. "Recent oil price shock and Tunisian economy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1041-1051, March.
    3. Jammazi, Rania & Aloui, Chaker, 2010. "Wavelet decomposition and regime shifts: Assessing the effects of crude oil shocks on stock market returns," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1415-1435, March.
    4. Awerbuch, Shimon & Sauter, Raphael, 2006. "Exploiting the oil-GDP effect to support renewables deployment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 2805-2819, November.
    5. Cologni, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo, 2008. "Oil prices, inflation and interest rates in a structural cointegrated VAR model for the G-7 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 856-888, May.
    6. Brown, Stephen P. A. & Yucel, Mine K., 2002. "Energy prices and aggregate economic activity: an interpretative survey," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 193-208.
    7. Surender Kumar, 2009. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Shocks: Empirical Evidence for India," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(1), pages 15-37.
    8. Chang, Youngho & Wong, Joon Fong, 2003. "Oil price fluctuations and Singapore economy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(11), pages 1151-1165, September.
    9. Greene, David L & Jones, Donald W & Leiby, Paul N, 1998. "The outlook for US oil dependence," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 55-69, January.
    10. Francçois Lescaroux, 2011. "The Oil Price-Microeconomy Relationship is Alive and Well," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 25-48.

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    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General


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