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COVID-19 and the Costs of Deadly Disasters

Author

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  • Sydney C. Ludvigson
  • Sai Ma
  • Serena Ng

Abstract

Using monthly data on costly natural disasters affecting the United States over the last 40 years, we estimate 2 time series models and use them to generate predictions about the impact of COVID-19. We find that while our models yield reasonable estimates of the impact on industrial production and the number of scheduled flight departures, they underestimate the unprecedented changes in the labor market.

Suggested Citation

  • Sydney C. Ludvigson & Sai Ma & Serena Ng, 2021. "COVID-19 and the Costs of Deadly Disasters," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 111, pages 366-370, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:111:y:2021:p:366-70
    DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20211066
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    File URL: https://doi.org/10.3886/E139142V1
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Davis, Richard & Ng, Serena, 2023. "Time series estimation of the dynamic effects of disaster-type shocks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(1), pages 180-201.
    2. Lahiri, Kajal & Yang, Cheng, 2022. "Boosting tax revenues with mixed-frequency data in the aftermath of COVID-19: The case of New York," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 545-566.
    3. Mariella Nenova, 2022. "Households’ Consumption Pattern and Saving – Evidence for the First Year of the Covid-19 Pandemic in Bulgaria," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 6, pages 3-22.
    4. Paul Ho, 2021. "Forecasting in the Absence of Precedent," Working Paper 21-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    5. Serena Ng, 2021. "Modeling Macroeconomic Variations after Covid-19," NBER Working Papers 29060, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O51 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions

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