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Risk, the College Premium, and Aggregate Human Capital Investment

Author

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  • Kartik Athreya
  • Janice Eberly

Abstract

Despite increases in the college earnings premium to persistently high levels, investment in college education remains low. We can understand this apparent puzzle by considering the risk of attending college and, in particular, the possibility of failing to graduate. Students with a reasonable probability of completing college already enroll, and for those who do not enroll, the low chance of completion blunts the impact of the rising college premium. In the absence of improved college readiness, our quantitative results suggest that continuing long-standing trends in skill-biased technological change can be expected primarily to increase earnings inequality rather than college attainment.

Suggested Citation

  • Kartik Athreya & Janice Eberly, 2021. "Risk, the College Premium, and Aggregate Human Capital Investment," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 168-213, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:13:y:2021:i:2:p:168-213
    DOI: 10.1257/mac.20160396
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Anders Akerman, 2024. "Market concentration and the relative demand for college‐educated labour," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 91(361), pages 292-319, January.
    2. Hugh Cassidy & Amanda Gaulke, 2024. "The increasing penalty to occupation‐education mismatch," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(2), pages 607-632, April.
    3. Giuseppe Bertola, 2023. "University dropout problems and solutions," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 138(3), pages 221-248, April.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • I22 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Educational Finance; Financial Aid
    • I23 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Higher Education; Research Institutions
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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