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The macroeconomics of automation: data, theory, and policy analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Nir Jaimovich
  • Itay Saporta-Eksten
  • Henry Siu
  • Yaniv Yedid-Levi

Abstract

The U.S. economy has experienced a significant drop in the fraction of the population employed in middle wage, “routine task-intensive” occupations. Applying machine learning techniques, we identify characteristics of those who used to be employed in such occupations and show they are now less likely to work in routine occupations. Instead, they are either non-participants in the labor force or working at occupations that tend to occupy the bottom of the wage distribution. We then develop a quantitative, heterogeneous agent, general equilibrium model of labor force participation, occupational choice, and capital investment. This allows us to quantify the role of advancement in automation technology in accounting for these labor market changes. We then use this framework as a laboratory to evaluate various public policies aimed at addressing the disappearance of routine employment and its consequent impacts on inequality.

Suggested Citation

  • Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta-Eksten & Henry Siu & Yaniv Yedid-Levi, 2020. "The macroeconomics of automation: data, theory, and policy analysis," ECON - Working Papers 340, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    • Handle: RePEc:zur:econwp:340
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Luca Fornaro & Martin Wolf, 2021. "Monetary policy in the age of automation," Economics Working Papers 1794, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 2022.
    2. Dennis C. Hutschenreiter & Tommaso Santini & Eugenia Vella, 2022. "Automation and sectoral reallocation," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 335-362, May.
    3. Philippe Aghion & Céline Antonin & Simon Bunel & Xavier Jaravel, 2022. "Modern manufacturing capital, labor demand, and product market dynamics: Evidence from France," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03943312, HAL.
    4. Melosi, Leonardo & Faccini, Renato, 2019. "Bad Jobs and Low Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 13628, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. E. Mark Curtis & Daniel G. Garrett & Eric C. Ohrn & Kevin A. Roberts & Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato, 2021. "Capital Investment and Labor Demand," NBER Working Papers 29485, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Jaimovich, Nir & Saporta-Eksten, Itay & Siu, Henry & Yedid-Levi, Yaniv, 2021. "The macroeconomics of automation: Data, theory, and policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 1-16.
    7. Alessandra Bonfiglioli & Rosario Crinò & Harald Fadinger & Gino Gancia, 2020. "Robot Imports and Firm-Level Outcomes," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2020_243, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    8. Daniel Aaronson & Brian J. Phelan, 2020. "The Evolution of Technological Substitution in Low-Wage Labor Markets," Working Paper Series WP-2020-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, revised 01 Mar 2022.
    9. Casas, Pablo & Torres, José L., 2022. "Government size and automation," MPRA Paper 115271, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Guimarães, Luís & Mazeda Gil, Pedro, 2022. "Looking ahead at the effects of automation in an economy with matching frictions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    11. Cortes, Guido Matias & Jaimovich, Nir & Nekarda, Christopher J. & Siu, Henry E., 2020. "The dynamics of disappearing routine jobs: A flows approach," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    12. Jaimovich, Nir & Terry, Stephen & Vincent, Nicolas, 2020. "Location, Location, Location: Manufacturing and House Price Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 15409, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Arvai Kai & Mann Katja, 2022. "Consumption Inequality in the Digital Age," Working papers 890, Banque de France.
    14. Mr. Andrew Berg & Lahcen Bounader & Nikolay Gueorguiev & Hiroaki Miyamoto & Mr. Kenji Moriyama & Ryota Nakatani & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2021. "For the Benefit of All: Fiscal Policies and Equity-Efficiency Trade-offs in the Age of Automation," IMF Working Papers 2021/187, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Faia, Ester & Kudlyak, Marianna & Shabalina, Ekaterina, 2021. "Dynamic Labor Reallocation with Heterogeneous Skills and Uninsured Idiosyncratic Risk," IZA Discussion Papers 14794, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Noritaka Kudoh & Hiroaki Miyamoto, 2021. "Robots and Unemployment," Working Papers SDES-2021-5, Kochi University of Technology, School of Economics and Management, revised May 2021.
    17. Arthur Jacobs & Elsy Verhofstadt & Luc Van Ootegem, 2023. "Are more automatable jobs less satisfying?," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 23/1059, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    18. Arvai, Kai & Mann, Katja, 2022. "Consumption Inequality in the Digital Age," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264001, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    19. Wacks, Johannes, 2021. "Labor Market Polarization with Hand-to-Mouth Households," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242391, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    20. Nakatani, Ryota, 2022. "Optimal fiscal policy in the automated economy," MPRA Paper 115003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. ARAI Kosuke & FUJIWARA Ippei & SHIROTA Toyoichiro, 2021. "Robot Penetration and Task Changes," Discussion papers 21093, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Polarization; automation; routine employment; labor force participation; universal basic income; unemployment insurance; retraining;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • J01 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics: General
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor

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