IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/115003.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Optimal fiscal policy in the automated economy

Author

Listed:
  • Nakatani, Ryota

Abstract

Adding (1) the endogenous labor supply of workers, (2) fiscal policy instruments, and (3) monopolistic competition to Berg et al.’s (2018) general equilibrium model of automation, we study how automation (i.e., robots and artificial intelligence) affects the efficacy of redistribution policy. Using the consumption equivalent welfare gain developed by Domeij and Heathcote (2004) and assuming a 50 percent increase in robot-augmented technology shock, we derive the optimal tax rates for various tax policy instruments in the steady state of the model economy calibrated for the United States. We find that the optimal capital income tax rate is 20 percent. Another finding is that the zero tax rate on the wage income of unskilled workers is an optimal tax policy. We also find that the optimal tax rates on robots and consumption are dependent on the preference of the government. Finally, we find that the Pareto-efficient optimal tax system is characterized as a combination of a 15.9 percent rate on capital income tax and a zero tax rate on unskilled workers’ income. Our analysis contributes to the literature on optimal taxation in the automated age.

Suggested Citation

  • Nakatani, Ryota, 2022. "Optimal fiscal policy in the automated economy," MPRA Paper 115003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:115003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/115003/1/MPRA_paper_115003.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mr. Adrian Peralta Alva & Agustin Roitman, 2018. "Technology and the Future of Work," IMF Working Papers 2018/207, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Naito, Hisahiro, 1999. "Re-examination of uniform commodity taxes under a non-linear income tax system and its implication for production efficiency," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 165-188, February.
    3. Nakatani, Ryota, 2021. "Total factor productivity enablers in the ICT industry: A cross-country firm-level analysis," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(9).
    4. Havranek, Tomas & Horvath, Roman & Irsova, Zuzana & Rusnak, Marek, 2015. "Cross-country heterogeneity in intertemporal substitution," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 100-118.
    5. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June.
    6. Orhan Erem Atesagaoglu & Hakki Yazici, 2021. "Optimal Taxation of Capital in the Presence of Declining Labor Share," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 21/739, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    7. Daron Acemoglu & Andrea Manera & Pascual Restrepo, 2020. "Does the US Tax Code Favor Automation?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 51(1 (Spring), pages 231-300.
    8. Tuomala, Matti, 1984. "On the optimal income taxation : Some further numerical results," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 351-366, April.
    9. Berg, Andrew & Buffie, Edward F. & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2018. "Should we fear the robot revolution? (The correct answer is yes)," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 117-148.
    10. Joao Guerreiro & Sergio Rebelo & Pedro Teles, 2022. "Should Robots Be Taxed? [Skills, Tasks and Technologies: Implications for Employment and Earnings]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(1), pages 279-311.
    11. Raj Chetty & Adam Guren & Day Manoli & Andrea Weber, 2011. "Are Micro and Macro Labor Supply Elasticities Consistent? A Review of Evidence on the Intensive and Extensive Margins," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 471-475, May.
    12. David Domeij & Jonathan Heathcote, 2004. "On The Distributional Effects Of Reducing Capital Taxes," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(2), pages 523-554, May.
    13. Kenneth L. Judd, 2002. "Capital-Income Taxation with Imperfect Competition," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 417-421, May.
    14. Wolfgang F. Stolper & Paul A. Samuelson, 1941. "Protection and Real Wages," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 9(1), pages 58-73.
    15. Jaimovich, Nir & Saporta-Eksten, Itay & Siu, Henry & Yedid-Levi, Yaniv, 2021. "The macroeconomics of automation: Data, theory, and policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 1-16.
    16. Zhang, Pengqing, 2019. "Automation, wage inequality and implications of a robot tax," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 500-509.
    17. Simcha Barkai, 2020. "Declining Labor and Capital Shares," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(5), pages 2421-2463, October.
    18. Atkinson, A. B. & Stiglitz, J. E., 1976. "The design of tax structure: Direct versus indirect taxation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1-2), pages 55-75.
    19. Chamley, Christophe, 1986. "Optimal Taxation of Capital Income in General Equilibrium with Infinite Lives," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(3), pages 607-622, May.
    20. Ludwig Straub & Iván Werning, 2020. "Positive Long-Run Capital Taxation: Chamley-Judd Revisited," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(1), pages 86-119, January.
    21. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-417, June.
    22. Mr. Andrew Berg & Lahcen Bounader & Nikolay Gueorguiev & Hiroaki Miyamoto & Mr. Kenji Moriyama & Ryota Nakatani & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2021. "For the Benefit of All: Fiscal Policies and Equity-Efficiency Trade-offs in the Age of Automation," IMF Working Papers 2021/187, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Acemoglu, Daron & Autor, David, 2011. "Skills, Tasks and Technologies: Implications for Employment and Earnings," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 12, pages 1043-1171, Elsevier.
    24. DeCanio, Stephen J., 2016. "Robots and humans – complements or substitutes?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 280-291.
    25. Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1982. "Self-selection and Pareto efficient taxation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 213-240, March.
    26. Judd, Kenneth L., 1985. "Redistributive taxation in a simple perfect foresight model," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 59-83, October.
    27. Michel Strawczynski & Momi Dahan, 2000. "Optimal Income Taxation: An Example with a U-Shaped Pattern of Optimal Marginal Tax Rates: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 681-686, June.
    28. Per Krusell & Lee E. Ohanian & JosÈ-Victor RÌos-Rull & Giovanni L. Violante, 2000. "Capital-Skill Complementarity and Inequality: A Macroeconomic Analysis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1029-1054, September.
    29. Orhan Erem Atesagaoglu & Hakki Yazici, 2021. "Optimal Taxation of Capital in the Presence of Declining Labor Share," CESifo Working Paper Series 9101, CESifo.
    30. Diamond, Peter A, 1998. "Optimal Income Taxation: An Example with a U-Shaped Pattern of Optimal Marginal Tax Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(1), pages 83-95, March.
    31. Ryota Nakatani, 2016. "Twin Banking and Currency Crises and Monetary Policy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 747-767, September.
    32. J. A. Mirrlees, 1971. "An Exploration in the Theory of Optimum Income Taxation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 38(2), pages 175-208.
    33. Stern, N. H., 1976. "On the specification of models of optimum income taxation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1-2), pages 123-162.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ryota Nakatani, 2023. "Productivity drivers of infrastructure companies: Network industries utilizing economies of scale in the digital era," Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 94(4), pages 1273-1298, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mr. Andrew Berg & Lahcen Bounader & Nikolay Gueorguiev & Hiroaki Miyamoto & Mr. Kenji Moriyama & Ryota Nakatani & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2021. "For the Benefit of All: Fiscal Policies and Equity-Efficiency Trade-offs in the Age of Automation," IMF Working Papers 2021/187, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Casas, Pablo & Torres, José L., 2022. "Government size and automation," MPRA Paper 115271, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Spencer Bastani & Daniel Waldenström, 2020. "How Should Capital Be Taxed?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(4), pages 812-846, September.
    4. Cui, Xiaoyong & Gong, Liutang & Li, Wenjian, 2021. "Supply-side optimal capital taxation with endogenous wage inequality," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    5. Slavík, Ctirad & Yazici, Hakki, 2014. "Machines, buildings, and optimal dynamic taxes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 47-61.
    6. Jonas Loebbing, 2020. "Redistributive Income Taxation with Directed Technical Change," CESifo Working Paper Series 8743, CESifo.
    7. Jan Eeckhout & Chunyang Fu & Wenjian Li & Xi Weng, 2021. "Optimal taxation and market power," Economics Working Papers 1777, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    8. B. Douglas Bernheim, 2010. "Emmanuel Saez: 2009 John Bates Clark Medalist," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(3), pages 183-206, Summer.
    9. Guerreiro, Joao & Rebelo, Sergio & Teles, Pedro, 2020. "What is the optimal immigration policy? Migration, jobs, and welfare," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 61-87.
    10. Louis Kaplow, 2022. "Optimal Income Taxation," NBER Working Papers 30199, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Uwe Thuemmel, 2018. "Optimal Taxation of Robots," CESifo Working Paper Series 7317, CESifo.
    12. Sebastian Dyrda & Marcelo Pedroni, 2015. "Optimal Fiscal Policy in a Model with Uninsurable Idiosyncratic Shocks," Working Papers tecipa-550, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    13. Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2018. "Pareto efficient taxation and expenditures: Pre- and re-distribution," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 101-119.
    14. Kumhof, Michael & Tideman, Nicolaus & Hudson, Michael & Goodhart, Charles, 2021. "Post-Corona Balanced-Budget Super-Stimulus: The Case for Shifting Taxes onto Land," CEPR Discussion Papers 16652, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Orhan Erem Atesagaoglu & Hakki Yazici, 2021. "Optimal Taxation of Capital in the Presence of Declining Labor Share," CESifo Working Paper Series 9101, CESifo.
    16. Been-Lo Chen & Fei-Chi Liang, 2024. "Optimal Taxation in the Life Cycle with Human Capital Investment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 52, pages 21-45, April.
    17. Jang-Ting Guo & Alan Krause, 2018. "Changing social preferences and optimal redistributive taxation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(1), pages 73-92.
    18. Auerbach, Alan J. & Hines, James Jr., 2002. "Taxation and economic efficiency," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 21, pages 1347-1421, Elsevier.
    19. Felix Bierbrauer, 2016. "Effizienz oder Gerechtigkeit? Ungleiche Einkommen, ungleiche Vermögen und die Theorie der optimalen Besteuerung," Discussion Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2016_03, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods.
    20. Hsu, Minchung & Yang, C.C., 2013. "Optimal linear and two-bracket income taxes with idiosyncratic earnings risk," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 58-71.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    automation; fiscal policy; optimal taxation; capital income tax; labor income tax; consumption tax; robot tax; social welfare; dynamic general equilibrium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation
    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:115003. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.