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A Vicious Cycle of Regional Unemployment and Crime? - Evidence from German Counties

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  • Umbach, Tim

Abstract

Much research has been done showing that unemployment can cause crime, and that crime adversely impacts economic activity. However, very few authors have considered a simultaneous relationship. Using an IV-setup and regional panel-data, I find evidence for the possibility of a vicious cycle, with unemployment leading to higher crime rates and crime rates raising unemployment. I further find that especially employment in low-skill service jobs is adversely affected by crime, that many types of crime are impacted by unemployment differently and that both apartment rents and GDP-growth decrease if crime increases. The spatial dependencies found further raise the possibility that these vicious cycles could spill over into neighboring regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Umbach, Tim, 2020. "A Vicious Cycle of Regional Unemployment and Crime? - Evidence from German Counties," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224611, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc20:224611
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crime; Unemployment; Amenities; spatial autregresssive model; SARAR; endogenous regessors.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J32 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits; Retirement Plans; Private Pensions
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General

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