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Do immigrants increase crime? Spatial analysis in a middle-income country

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  • Leiva, Mauricio
  • Vasquez-Lavín, Felipe
  • Ponce Oliva, Roberto D.

Abstract

The last decade has seen a significant global increase in immigration. This large growth has caused an increasing opposition to immigration in local populations in many parts of the world, partly because of a commonly held belief that immigration increases crime. Using data from Chile, spanning 10 years, from 2005 to 2015, we analyze the relationship between immigration and crime through a dynamic Spatial Durbin Model (SDM), which accounts for the possible bias for omitted variables. As the spatial model is dynamic and based on panel data, it is possible to identify direct and indirect effects on both the short- (the same period) and long-term (next period) bases. Our results show that there is no statistical evidence to link an increase in the number of immigrants to a rise in the rate of any type of crime. If any, we found a negative relationship between the number of immigrants and crime for only one out of the eight crime types analyzed.

Suggested Citation

  • Leiva, Mauricio & Vasquez-Lavín, Felipe & Ponce Oliva, Roberto D., 2020. "Do immigrants increase crime? Spatial analysis in a middle-income country," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:126:y:2020:i:c:s0305750x19303778
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104728
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crime; Immigration; Spatial econometrics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • K49 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Other

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