The European Commission's Scoreboard of Macroeconomic Imbalances: The impact of preferences on an early warning system
AbstractThe European Commission s Scoreboard of Macroeconomic Imbalances is a rare case of a publicly released early warning system. It allows the preferences of the politicians involved to be analysed with regard to the two potential errors of an early warning system missing a crisis and issuing a false alarm. Such an analysis is done for the first time in this article for early warning systems in general by using a standard signals approach, including a preference-based optimisation approach, to set thresholds. It is shown that, in general, the thresholds of the Commission s Scoreboard are set low (resulting in more alarm signals), as compared to a neutral stand. --
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association in its series Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order with number 80028.
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Tobias Knedlik, 2012. "The European Commission’s Scoreboard of Macroeconomic Imbalances – The Impact of Preferences on an Early Warning System," IWH Discussion Papers 10, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
- G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
- F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations
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