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The missing piece of the puzzle: Liquidity premiums in inflation-indexed markets

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  • Driessen, Joost
  • Nijman, Theo E.
  • Simon, Zorka

Abstract

Fleckenstein et al. (2014) document that nominal Treasuries trade at higher prices than inflation-swapped indexed bonds, which exactly replicate the nominal cash flows. We study whether this mispricing arises from liquidity premiums in inflation-indexed bonds (TIPS) and inflation swaps. Using US data, we show that the level of liquidity affects TIPS, whereas swap yields include a liquidity risk premium. We also allow for liquidity effects in nominal bonds. These results are based on a model with a systematic liquidity risk factor and asset-specific liquidity characteristics. We show that these liquidity (risk) premiums explain a substantial part of the TIPS underpricing.

Suggested Citation

  • Driessen, Joost & Nijman, Theo E. & Simon, Zorka, 2017. "The missing piece of the puzzle: Liquidity premiums in inflation-indexed markets," SAFE Working Paper Series 183, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:safewp:183
    DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3042506
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Béatrice Séverac & José S. Fonseca, 2021. "Relative pricing of French Treasury inflation-linked and nominal bonds: an empirical approach using arbitrage strategies," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 20(3), pages 273-295, September.
    2. Baumann, Ursel & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Westermann, Thomas & Riggi, Marianna & Bobeica, Elena & Meyler, Aidan & Böninghausen, Benjamin & Fritzer, Friedrich & Trezzi, Riccardo & Jonckheere, Jana & , 2021. "Inflation expectations and their role in Eurosystem forecasting," Occasional Paper Series 264, European Central Bank.
    3. Swinkels, Laurens, 2018. "Simulating historical inflation-linked bond returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 374-389.
    4. Barria, Rodrigo & Pinter, Gabor, 2023. "Mispricing in inflation markets," Bank of England working papers 1034, Bank of England.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    liquidity premium; liquidity risk; TIPS; inflation swaps; TIPS-Treasury puzzle;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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