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The relationship between GDP and the size of the informal economy: Empirical evidence for Spain

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  • Duarte, Pablo

Abstract

The empirical evidence on the linkage of the informal economy and GDP is ambiguous. It depends on the method used to estimate the size of the informal economy. I propose a common factor of four different approximations of the size of the informal economy as an alternative. Using Spain as an example I find that GDP Granger-causes informality, but not the other way around. I also find that positive GDP shocks induce positive and statistically significant responses of the size of the informal economy. --

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Paper provided by University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science in its series Working Papers with number 127.

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Date of creation: 2014
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:leiwps:127

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Keywords: informal economy; dynamic factor model;

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  1. Edgar L. Feige & Ivica Urban, 2008. "Measuring Underground (Unobserved, Non-Observed, Unrecorded) Economies in Transition Countries: Can We Trust GDP?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp913, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
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  10. Giles, David E..A. & Tedds, Lindsay M. & Werkneh, Gugsa, 2002. "The Canadian Underground and Measured Economies: Granger Causality Results," MPRA Paper 39786, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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  12. Lars P. Feld & Friedrich Schneider, 2010. "Survey on the Shadow Economy and Undeclared Earnings in OECD Countries," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11, pages 109-149, 05.
  13. Serdar Birinci, 2013. "Trade openness, growth, and informality: Panel VAR evidence from OECD economies," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 694-705.
  14. Pablo Duarte & Bernd Süssmuth, 2014. "Robust Implementation of a Parsimonious Dynamic Factor Model to Nowcast GDP," CESifo Working Paper Series 4574, CESifo Group Munich.
  15. Roberto Dell'Anno, 2008. "What is the relationship between Unofficial and Official Economy? An analysis in Latin American Countries," Quaderni DSEMS 23-2008, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Matematiche e Statistiche, Universita' di Foggia.
  16. Diego Martinez-Lopez, 2013. "The underreporting of income by self-employed workers in Spain," SERIEs, Spanish Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 353-371, November.
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