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Institutions, Informal Economy, and Economic Development

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  • Ceyhun Elgin
  • Oguz Oztunali

Abstract

Using cross-national panel data, we examine the evolution of the informal economy through the course of economic development. Borrowing from previously published informal economy estimates for 141 countries over the period 1984-2009 and using panel data estimation techniques, we investigate the relationship between informal economy and the level of economic development, proxied by gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. Our findings suggest that institutional quality strongly interacts with this relationship. Specifically, we find that a higher GDP per capita is associated with a larger informal sector size in countries where the institutional quality is low. The opposite is true in countries with good institutions. These results are also in line with a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model.

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  • Ceyhun Elgin & Oguz Oztunali, 2014. "Institutions, Informal Economy, and Economic Development," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(4), pages 145-162.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:50:y:2014:i:4:p:145-162
    DOI: 10.2753/REE1540-496X500409
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    Cited by:

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    4. Afonso, Oscar & Neves, Pedro Cunha & Pinto, Tiago, 2020. "The non-observed economy and economic growth: A meta-analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(1).
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    6. Jing Li & Zidong An & Yan Wang, 2023. "On the Substitution and Complementarity between Robots and Labor: Evidence from Advanced and Emerging Economies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-18, June.
    7. Ceyhun Elgin, 2020. "Shadow Economies Around the World: Evidence from Metropolitan Areas," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 46(2), pages 301-322, April.
    8. Stephen Esaku, 2022. "Institutionalized democracy and the shadow economy in the short- and long-run: empirical analysis from Uganda," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-12, December.
    9. Alan Finkelstein Shapiro, 2015. "Institutions, Informal Labor Markets, and Business Cycle Volatility," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2015), pages 77-112, October.
    10. Fawzi Banao & Bertrand Laporte, 2022. "Terrorism, Customs and fraudulent Gold exports in Africa," CERDI Working papers hal-03889094, HAL.
    11. Kpognon, Koffi D., 2022. "Fostering domestic resources mobilization in sub-Saharan Africa: Linking natural resources and ICT infrastructure to the size of informal economy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    12. Cong Minh Huynh & Tan Loi Nguyen, 2020. "Fiscal policy and shadow economy in Asian developing countries: does corruption matter?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(4), pages 1745-1761, October.
    13. Ceyhun Elgin & Ferda Erturk, 2019. "Informal economies around the world: measures, determinants and consequences," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 9(2), pages 221-237, June.
    14. Dumenu, William Kwadwo & Appiah, Louis Gyekye & Paul, Carola & Darr, Dietrich, 2023. "Should forest enterprises formalize? Insight from a multi-dimensional characterization of informal baobab enterprises," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    15. Gheorghe ZAMAN & Zizi GOSCHIN, 2016. "A New Multidimensional Ranking of Shadow Economy for EU Countries," Romanian Journal of Economics, Institute of National Economy, vol. 43(2(52)), pages 14-33, december.
    16. Salinas, Aldo & Ortiz, Cristian & Changoluisa, Javier & Muffatto, Moreno, 2023. "Testing three views about the determinants of informal economy: New evidence at global level and by country groups using the CS-ARDL approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 438-455.
    17. Fawzi Banao & Bertrand Laporte, 2022. "Terrorism, Customs and fraudulent Gold exports in Africa," CERDI Working papers hal-03889094, HAL.
    18. Asamoah, Michael Effah & Adjasi, Charles K.D. & Alhassan, Abdul Latif, 2016. "Macroeconomic uncertainty, foreign direct investment and institutional quality: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 612-621.
    19. Pablo Duarte, 2017. "The relationship between GDP and the size of the informal economy: empirical evidence for Spain," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1409-1421, June.
    20. Mpendulo Harold Thulare & Inocent Moyo & Sifiso Xulu, 2021. "Systematic Review of Informal Urban Economies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-18, October.
    21. Liu, Ailan & Wang, Zhixuan & Zhu, Pengcheng, 2021. "Does informal economy undermine the effects of China’s aid on its outward foreign direct investment?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 315-329.
    22. Hailin Chen & Friedrich Schneider & Qunli Sun, 2020. "Measuring the size of the shadow economy in 30 provinces of China over 1995–2016: The MIMIC approach," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 427-453, August.
    23. Samargandi, Nahla & Kutan, Ali M., 2016. "Private credit spillovers and economic growth: Evidence from BRICS countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 56-84.
    24. Boza, S. & Mora, M. & Osorio, F. & Munoz, J., 2018. "Family farmer attitudes toward incorporating into the formal economy," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 276960, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    25. Kpognon, Koffi D., 2022. "Effect of Natural Resources on the Size of Informal Economy in sub-Saharan Africa: An Empirical Investigation," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-14.

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