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Will There Be a Shortage of Skilled Labor? An East German Perspective to 2015

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  • Buscher, Herbert S.
  • Dettmann, Eva
  • Sunder, Marco
  • Trocka, Dirk

Abstract

We analyze the supply and demand of skilled labor in an East German federal state, Thuringia. This state has been facing high unemployment in the course of economic transformation and experiences population aging and shrinking more rapidly than most West European regions. In a first step, we use extrapolation techniques to forecast labor supply and demand for the period from 2009 to 2015, disaggregated by type of qualification. The analysis does not corroborate the notion of an imminent skilledlabor shortage but provides hints for a tightening labor market for skilled workers. In a second step, we ask firms about their appraisal of future recruitment conditions, and both current and planned strategies in the context of personnel management. The majority of firms plans to expand further education efforts and to hire older workers. The study closes with policy recommendations to prevent occupational mismatch.

Suggested Citation

  • Buscher, Herbert S. & Dettmann, Eva & Sunder, Marco & Trocka, Dirk, 2009. "Will There Be a Shortage of Skilled Labor? An East German Perspective to 2015," IWH Discussion Papers 13/2009, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:iwh-13-09
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Reinberg, Alexander & Hummel, Markus, 2002. "Zur langfristigen Entwicklung des qualifikationsspezifischen Arbeitskräfteangebots und -bedarfs in Deutschland : empirische Befunde und aktuelle Projektionsergebnisse (On the long-term development of ," Mitteilungen aus der Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 35(4), pages 580-600.
    2. James Heckman, 2011. "Policies to foster human capital," Voprosy obrazovaniya / Educational Studies Moscow, National Research University Higher School of Economics, issue 3, pages 73-137.
    3. Fuchs, Johann & Söhnlein, Doris, 2005. "Vorausschätzung der Erwerbsbevölkerung bis 2050," IAB-Forschungsbericht 200516, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    4. Buscher, Herbert S. & Dettmann, Eva & Schmeißer, Christian & Trocka, Dirk & Sunder, Marco, 2009. "Entwicklung des Fachkräftebedarfs in Thüringen bis 2015," IWH-Sonderhefte 2/2009, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    5. Beekman, T.B.J. & Dekker, R. & de Grip, A. & Heijke, J.A.M., 1989. "An explanation of the educational structure of occupations," ROA Working Paper 3E, Maastricht University, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA).
    6. Kubis, Alexander & Schneider, Lutz, 2007. "„Sag mir, wo die Mädchen sind ...“ Regionale Analyse des Wanderungsverhaltens junger Frauen," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 13(8), pages 298-307.
    7. Bernd Meyer & Christian Lutz & Peter Schnur & Gerd Zika, 2007. "National Economic Policy Simulations with Global Interdependencies: A Sensitivity Analysis for Germany," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 37-55.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eva Dettmann & Jutta Günther, 2013. "Subsidized Vocational Training: Stepping Stone or Trap? Assessing Empirical Effects Using Matching Techniques," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 149(IV), pages 405-443, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    demographic change; labor demand for highskilled workers; labor force forecast; vocational training; Demographischer Wandel; Arbeitsnachfrage; Fachkräfte; Prognose des Arbeitsangebots; Berufsausbildung;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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