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Weltweite konjunkturelle Auswirkungen von Immobilienkrisen


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  • Jannsen, Nils
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    Nach den Vereinigten Staaten drohen nun auch andere Länder in eine Immobilienkrise abzurutschen. Besonders in Großbritannien und Spanien sprechen bereits viele Anzeichen dafür, dass eine solche Krise bereits ausgebrochen ist, aber auch Frankreich könnte - neben einer Reihe von kleineren Ländern - betroffen sein. Immobilienkrisen haben in der Vergangenheit häufig zu lang anhaltenden konjunkturellen Einbrüchen in den betroffenen Ländern geführt und ein gleichzeitiges Auftreten in mehreren bedeutenden Industrienländern hat es seit 20 Jahren nicht mehr gegeben. Mithilfe eines makroökonometrischen Modells, das die Handelsverflechtungen zwischen einer Reihe von Ländern abbildet, werden die weltweiten Konsequenzen von in den Vereinigten Staaten, Großbritannien, Spanien und Frankreich gemeinsam auftretenden Immobilienkrisen untersucht. In einem solchem Szenario würden vor allem andere europäische Länder und insbesondere Deutschland nachhaltig konjunkturell in Mitleidenschaft gezogen. Mit den stärksten negativen Übertragungseffekten wäre in der ersten Hälfte des Jahres 2009 zu rechnen. --

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    Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) in its series Kiel Discussion Papers with number 458.

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    Date of creation: 2008
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkdp:458

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    1. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1.
    2. Filippo di Mauro & L. Vanessa Smith & Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-38.
    3. Dovern, Jonas & Jannsen, Nils, 2008. "Immobilienkrise in den Vereinigten Staaten: Historischer Vergleich und Implikationen für den Konjunkturverlauf," Kiel Discussion Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) 451, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    4. Dées, Stéphane & Holly, Sean & Pesaran, Hashem & Smith, Vanessa, 2007. "Long run macroeconomic relations in the global economy," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 0750, European Central Bank.
    5. Bordo, Michael D & Jeanne, Olivier, 2002. "Boom-Busts in Asset Prices, Economic Instability and Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 3398, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    7. Edward E. Leamer, 2007. "Housing is the business cycle," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 149-233.
    8. Detken, Carsten & Smets, Frank, 2004. "Asset price booms and monetary policy," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 0364, European Central Bank.
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