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Weltweite konjunkturelle Auswirkungen von Immobilienkrisen

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  • Jannsen, Nils
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    Abstract

    Nach den Vereinigten Staaten drohen nun auch andere Länder in eine Immobilienkrise abzurutschen. Besonders in Großbritannien und Spanien sprechen bereits viele Anzeichen dafür, dass eine solche Krise bereits ausgebrochen ist, aber auch Frankreich könnte - neben einer Reihe von kleineren Ländern - betroffen sein. Immobilienkrisen haben in der Vergangenheit häufig zu lang anhaltenden konjunkturellen Einbrüchen in den betroffenen Ländern geführt und ein gleichzeitiges Auftreten in mehreren bedeutenden Industrienländern hat es seit 20 Jahren nicht mehr gegeben. Mithilfe eines makroökonometrischen Modells, das die Handelsverflechtungen zwischen einer Reihe von Ländern abbildet, werden die weltweiten Konsequenzen von in den Vereinigten Staaten, Großbritannien, Spanien und Frankreich gemeinsam auftretenden Immobilienkrisen untersucht. In einem solchem Szenario würden vor allem andere europäische Länder und insbesondere Deutschland nachhaltig konjunkturell in Mitleidenschaft gezogen. Mit den stärksten negativen Übertragungseffekten wäre in der ersten Hälfte des Jahres 2009 zu rechnen. --

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) in its series Kiel Discussion Papers with number 458.

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    Date of creation: 2008
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkdp:458

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    1. Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem & Holly, Sean & Dees, Stephane & Smith, L. Vanessa, 2007. "Long Run Macroeconomic Relations in the Global Economy," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 1(3), pages 1-20.
    2. Dovern, Jonas & Jannsen, Nils, 2008. "Immobilienkrise in den Vereinigten Staaten: Historischer Vergleich und Implikationen für den Konjunkturverlauf," Kiel Discussion Papers 451, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    3. Tilak Abeysinghe & Kristin J. Forbes, 2001. "Trade Linkages and Output-Multiplier Effects: A Structural VAR Approach with a Focus on Asia," NBER Working Papers 8600, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Edward E. Leamer, 2007. "Housing IS the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 13428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1.
    6. Filippo di Mauro & L. Vanessa Smith & Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-38.
    7. Bordo, Michael D & Jeanne, Olivier, 2002. "Boom-Busts in Asset Prices, Economic Instability and Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 3398, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Detken, Carsten & Smets, Frank, 2004. "Asset price booms and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 0364, European Central Bank.
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