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National and International Business Cycle Effects of Housing Crises

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  • Nils Jannsen

Abstract

Housing crises usually go hand in hand with a long-lasting recession and a considerable loss in output. By looking at historical crises, we show that the downturns in the housing markets in the United States, the United Kingdom, Spain, and France, beginning in 2006 and in 2007, were followed by exceptionally strong recessions. Then, we investigate the international transmission effects of housing crises by applying models that stress the importance of the trade channel as a transmission channel. We demonstrate that recessions triggered by housing crises are in general strong enough to lead to significant negative international spillover effects. Further, we show that the housing market downturns in the above four countries are sufficient to explain to a considerable degree the recessions that took place all over the world during the Great Recession of 2008 / 2009 and in particular in European countries via international spillover effects. However, these housing crises are not sufficient to explain the steep downturn that could be observed in many countries during the winter half year 2008 / 2009.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Duncker & Humblot, Berlin in its journal Applied Economics Quarterly.

Volume (Year): 56 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 175-206

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Handle: RePEc:aeq:aeqaeq:v56_y2010_i3_q3_p175-206

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Keywords: Housing Crisis; Business Cycle; International Transmission;

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References

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  1. Detken, Carsten & Smets, Frank, 2004. "Asset price booms and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 0364, European Central Bank.
  2. Stephane Dees & Sean Holly & M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith, 2007. "Long Run Macroeconomic Relations in the Global Economy," CESifo Working Paper Series 1904, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Pesaran M.H. & Schuermann T. & Weiner S.M., 2004. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 129-162, April.
  4. Filippo di Mauro & L. Vanessa Smith & Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-38.
  5. Tilak Abeysinghe & Kristin Forbes, 2005. "Trade Linkages and Output-Multiplier Effects: a Structural VAR Approach with a Focus on Asia," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 356-375, 05.
  6. Edward E. Leamer, 2007. "Housing IS the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 13428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Zuzana Brixiova & Laura Vartia & Andreas Woergoetter, 2009. "Capital Inflows, Household Debt And The Boom Bust Cycle In Estonia," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp965, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  2. Chudik, Alexander & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2014. "Theory and practice of GVAR modeling," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 180, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  3. Nicole Aregger & Martin Brown & Enzo Rossi, 2013. "Transaction Taxes, Capital Gains Taxes and House Prices," Working Papers 2013-02, Swiss National Bank.
  4. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Erholung der Weltwirtschaft verliert an Schwung," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 45574, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  5. Jens Hogrefe & Nils Jannsen & Carsten-Patrick Meier, 2010. "The Ugly and the Bad: Banking and Housing Crises Strangle Output Permanently, Ordinary Recessions Do Not," Kiel Working Papers 1586, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  6. Dufrénot, Gilles & Malik, Sheheryar, 2012. "The changing role of house price dynamics over the business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1960-1967.
  7. Jannsen, Nils & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Growth patterns after the crisis: This time is not different," Kiel Policy Brief 22, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  8. Christian Aßmann & Jens Hogrefe & Nils Jannsen, 2009. "Costs of Housing Crises: International Evidence," Kiel Working Papers 1524, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  9. Jonas Dovern & Björn van Roye, 2013. "International transmission of financial stress: evidence from a GVAR," Kiel Working Papers 1844, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  10. Brixiova, Zuzana & Vartia, Laura & Wörgötter, Andreas, 2010. "Capital flows and the boom-bust cycle: The case of Estonia," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 55-72, March.
  11. Jannsen, Nils & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Growth patterns after the crisis: This time is not different," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 47873, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  12. Alexander Chudik & Hashem Pesaran, 2014. "Theory and Practice of GVAR Modeling," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1408, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

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