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The rise of the East and the Far East: German labor markets and trade integration

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  • Dauth, Wolfgang
  • Findeisen, Sebastian
  • Suedekum, Jens

Abstract

We analyze the effects of the unprecedented rise in trade between Germany and the East - China and Eastern Europe - in the period 1988 - 2008 on German local labor markets. Using detailed administrative data, we exploit the cross-regional variation in initial industry structures and use trade flows of other high-income countries as instruments for regional import and export exposure. We find that the rise of the East in the world economy caused substantial job losses in German regions specialized in import-competing industries, both in manufacturing and beyond. Regions specialized in export-oriented industries, however, experienced even stronger employment gains and lower unemployment. In the aggregate, we estimate that this trade integration has caused some 442,000 additional jobs in the economy and contributed to retaining the manufacturing sector in Germany. This is almost exclusively driven by the rise of Eastern Europe, not by China. We also conduct an analysis at the individual worker level, and find that trade had a stabilizing overall effect on employment relationships. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Heinrich‐Heine‐Universität Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE) in its series DICE Discussion Papers with number 127.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:dicedp:127

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Keywords: International Trade; Import Competition; Export Opportunities; Local Labor Markets; Employment; China; Eastern Europe; Germany;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Dauth, Wolfgang & Südekum, Jens, 2012. "Profiles of local growth and industrial change : facts and an explanation," IAB Discussion Paper 201220, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  2. Dauth, Wolfgang & Suedekum, Jens, 2014. "Globalization and local profiles of economic growth and industrial change," DICE Discussion Papers 142, Heinrich‐Heine‐Universität Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
  3. Dauth, Wolfgang, 2013. "The Magnitude and Causes of Job Polarization: A Local Labor Market Approach," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79858, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  4. Christian Dustmann & Bernd Fitzenberger & Uta Sch?nberg & Alexandra Spitz-Oener, 2014. "From Sick Man of Europe to Economic Superstar: Germany's Resurgent Economy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(1), pages 167-88, Winter.
  5. Francisco Costa & Jason Garred & Joao Paulo Pessoa, 2014. "Winners and Losers from a Commodities-for-Manufactures Trade Boom," CEP Discussion Papers dp1269, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  6. Zareh Asatryan & Sebastian Braun & Wolfgang Lechthaler & Mariya Mileva & Catia Montagna, 2014. "Compensating the losers of free trade," WWWforEurope Working Papers series 63, WWWforEurope.

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