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The time trend in the matching function

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Author Info

  • Poeschel, Friedrich

    (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])

Abstract

"We revisit the puzzling finding that labour market performance appears to deteriorate, as suggested by negative time trends in empirical matching functions. We investigate whether these trends simply arise from omitted variable bias. Concretely, we consider the omission of job seekers beyond the unemployed, the omission of inflows as opposed to stocks, and the failure to account for vacancy dynamics. We first build a model of all labour market flows and use it to construct series for these flows from aggregate data on the U.S. labour market. Using these series, we obtain a measure for employed and non-participating job seekers. When we thus include all job seekers, the estimated time trend remains unchanged. We similarly obtain measures for inflows into unemployment and vacancies. When these are included, the magnitude of the time trend is halved but remains significant. When we account for basic vacancy dynamics, the estimated time trend can be fully explained by omitted variable bias. As suggested by this result, we present evidence that empirical matching functions can be interpreted as versions of the law of motion for vacancies: the coefficients in matching functions coincide with the coefficients in the law of motion after correcting for omitted variable bias." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany] in its series IAB Discussion Paper with number 201203.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: 29 Feb 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201203

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Keywords: Zeitreihenanalyse; matching; Arbeitsmarktindikatoren; offene Stellen; Arbeitsuchende; Arbeitslose; Nichterwerbstätige; USA; Bundesrepublik Deutschland; Bundesrepublik Deutschland;

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References

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  1. Abowd, John M & Zellner, Arnold, 1985. "Estimating Gross Labor-Force Flows," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 254-83, June.
  2. Mumford, Karen & Smith, Peter N, 1999. " The Hiring Function Reconsidered: On Closing the Circle," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(3), pages 343-64, August.
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  6. Ours, J. C. van & Burdett, K. & Coles, M., 1994. "Temporal Aggregation Bias in Stock-Flow Models," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-153334, Tilburg University.
  7. Kuhn, Peter J. & Mansour, Hani, 2011. "Is Internet Job Search Still Ineffective?," IZA Discussion Papers 5955, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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  11. Margaret Stevens, 2007. "New Microfoundations For The Aggregate Matching Function," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 48(3), pages 847-868, 08.
  12. Robert Shimer, 2012. "Reassessing the Ins and Outs of Unemployment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(2), pages 127-148, April.
  13. Poterba, James M & Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. "Reporting Errors and Labor Market Dynamics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(6), pages 1319-38, November.
  14. Stephen Nickell & Luca Nunziata & Wolfgang Ochel, 2005. "Unemployment in the OECD Since the 1960s. What Do We Know?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(500), pages 1-27, 01.
  15. Melvyn Coles & Barbara Petrongolo, 2008. "A Test Between Stock-Flow Matching And The Random Matching Function Approach," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1113-1141, November.
  16. Jackman, R & Layard, Richard & Pissarides, C, 1989. "On Vacancies," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 51(4), pages 377-94, November.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Münich, Daniel & Srholec, Martin & Moritz, Michael & Schäffler, Johannes, 2012. "Mothers and Daughters: Heterogeneity of German direct investments in the Czech Republic. Evidence from the IAB-ReLOC survey," IAB Discussion Paper 201217, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  2. Friedrich Poeschel, 2013. "Assortative matching through signals," 2013 Papers ppo178, Job Market Papers.
  3. Dauth, Wolfgang & Findeisen, Sebastian & Suedekum, Jens, 2012. "The Rise of the East and the Far East: German Labor Markets and Trade Integration," IZA Discussion Papers 6685, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  4. Mendolicchio, Concetta & Paolini, Dimitri & Pietra, Tito, 2012. "Asymmetric information and overeducation," IAB Discussion Paper 201214, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  5. Kröll, Alexandra & Farhauer, Oliver, 2012. "Examining the roots of homelessness: The impact of regional housing market conditions and the social environment on homelessness in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany," IAB Discussion Paper 201213, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  6. Deeke, Axel & Baas, Meike, 2012. "Berufliche Statusmobilität von Arbeitslosen nach beruflicher Weiterbildung : ein empirischer Beitrag zur Evaluation der Förderung beruflicher Weiterbildung," IAB Discussion Paper 201211, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  7. Engelmann, Sabine, 2012. "International trade, technical change and wage inequality in the U.K. economy," IAB Discussion Paper 201208, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  8. Drasch, Katrin, 2012. "Between familial imprinting and institutional regulation: Family related employment interruptions of women in Germany before and after the German reunification," IAB Discussion Paper 201209, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].

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