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The Condorcet Jury-Theorem with Two Independent Error-Probabilities

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  • Kirstein, Roland

Abstract

The Condorcet jury-theorem is derived from the implicit assumption that jury members may only commit one type of error. In binary decision situations however, two error types may occur, the probability of which is independent of each other. Taking this into account leads to a generalization of the theorem. -- Das Condorcet-Jury-Theorem basiert auf der implizieten Annahme, daß die Jurymitglieder nur eine Art von Entscheidungsfehler begehen können. In den typischerweise untersuchten binären Entscheidungsproblemen gibt es jedoch zwei Entscheidungsfehler, die mit voneinander unabhängigen Wahrscheinlichkeiten auftreten können. Wird dies berücksichtigt, ergibt sich eine Generalisierung des Theorems.

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Paper provided by Saarland University, CSLE - Center for the Study of Law and Economics in its series CSLE Discussion Paper Series with number 2006-03.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:csledp:200603

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Keywords: Group decisions; judicial; imperfect decision-making;

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  1. Dennis Mueller, 2001. "Centralism, Federalism, and the Nature of Individual Preferences," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 161-172, June.
  2. Schofield, Norman, 2002. "Representative democracy as social choice," Handbook of Social Choice and Welfare, in: K. J. Arrow & A. K. Sen & K. Suzumura (ed.), Handbook of Social Choice and Welfare, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 9, pages 425-455 Elsevier.
  3. Kirstein, Roland & Schmidtchen, Dieter, 1997. "Judicial Detection Skill and Contractual Compliance," CSLE Discussion Paper Series 97-07, Saarland University, CSLE - Center for the Study of Law and Economics.
  4. Shmuel Nitzan & Jacob Paroush, 1984. "Are qualified majority rules special?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 257-272, January.
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  9. Karotkin, Drora, 1994. "Effect of the size of the bench on the correctness of court judgments: The case of Israel," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 371-375, September.
  10. Timothy Feddersen & Wolfgang Pesendorfer, 1996. "Convicting the Innocent: The Inferiority of Unanimous Jury Verdicts," Discussion Papers 1170, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  11. Roger Congleton, 2007. "Informational limits to democratic public policy: The jury theorem, yardstick competition, and ignorance," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 132(3), pages 333-352, September.
  12. Heiner, Ronald A, 1983. "The Origin of Predictable Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(4), pages 560-95, September.
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  14. Amir Klausner & Moshe Pollak, 2001. "Comparative Reliability of Verdicts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(7), pages 931-948, July.
  15. Ben-Yashar, Ruth C & Nitzan, Shmuel I, 1997. "The Optimal Decision Rule for Fixed-Size Committees in Dichotomous Choice Situations: The General Result," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(1), pages 175-86, February.
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