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The log of gravity revisited

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  • Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada
  • Nowak-Lehmann D., Felicitas
  • Vollmer, Sebastian

Abstract

This paper evaluates the performance of alternative estimation methods for multiplicative and log models with heteroskedasticity. Contrary to Santos Silva and Tenreyro (2006), the results of a simulation study indicate that the Pseudo Poisson Maximum Likelihood estimator (PPML) is not always the best estimator. New estimates of the gravity equation are obtained for three different datasets with traditional methods (OLS and FGLS) and with the PPML. We find that the PPML assumption concerning the pattern of heteroskedasticity is, in most cases, rejected by the data and PPML estimates are outperformed by OLS and FGLS estimates in out-of-sample forecast. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Goettingen, Department of Economics in its series Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers with number 64.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:cegedp:64

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Related research

Keywords: simulations; Poisson regression; constant-elasticity models; heteroskedasticity; feasible generalized least squares (FGLS); maximum likelihood;

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Cited by:
  1. Michele Fratianni & Francesco Marchionne, 2011. "Trade Costs and Economic Development," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 54, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
  2. Aiello, Francesco & Demaria, Federica, 2009. "Do trade preferential agreements enhance the exports of developing countries? Evidence from the EU GSP," MPRA Paper 20093, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2009. "Further Simulation Evidence on the Performance of the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood Estimator," CEP Discussion Papers dp0933, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  4. Bernhard Herz & Marco Wagner, 2011. "The Dark Side of the Generalized System of Preferences," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(4), pages 763-775, 09.
  5. Neil Foster, 2012. "Preferential Trade Agreements and the Margins of Imports," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 869-889, November.
  6. Agostino, Mariarosaria & Trivieri, Francesco, 2014. "Geographical indication and wine exports. An empirical investigation considering the major European producers," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 22-36.
  7. Jan M�hlmann & Sjef Ederveen & Henri L.F. de Groot & Gert-Jan M. Linders, 2009. "Intangible Barriers to International Trade: A Sectoral Approach," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 09-021/3, Tinbergen Institute.
  8. Michele Fratianni & Francesco Marchionne, 2009. "The Limits to Integration," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 20, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.

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