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Bank capital forbearance and serial gambling

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  • Martynova, Natalya
  • Perotti, Enrico C.
  • Suárez, Javier

Abstract

We analyze the strategic interaction between undercapitalized banks and a supervisor who may intervene by preventive recapitalization. Supervisory forbearance emerges because political and fiscal costs undermine supervisors' commitment to intervene. When supervisors have lower credibility, banks' incentives to voluntary recapitalize are lower and supervisors may end up intervening more. Importantly, when intervention capacity is constrained (e.g. for fiscal reasons), private recapitalization decisions become strategic complements, producing equilibria with extremely high forbearance and high systemic costs. Anticipating forbearance in response to diffuse undercapitalization, banks may ex ante choose more correlated risks, a form of "serial gambling" undermining the supervisory response.

Suggested Citation

  • Martynova, Natalya & Perotti, Enrico C. & Suárez, Javier, 2020. "Bank capital forbearance and serial gambling," Discussion Papers 56/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:562020
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bank supervision; bank recapitalization; forbearance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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