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Shocks at large banks and banking sector distress: the Banking Granular Residual

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  • Blank, Sven
  • Buch, Claudia M.
  • Neugebauer, Katja

Abstract

Size matters in banking. In this paper, we explore whether shocks originating at large banks affect the probability of distress of smaller banks and thus the stability of the banking system. Our analysis proceeds in two steps. In a first step, we follow Gabaix (2008a) and construct a measure of idiosyncratic shocks at large banks, the so-called Banking Granular Residual. This measure documents the importance of size effects for the German banking system. In a second step, we incorporate this measure of idiosyncratic shocks at large banks into an integrated stress-testing model for the German banking system following De Graeve et al. (2007). We find that positive shocks at large banks reduce the probability of distress of small banks. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies with number 2009,04.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp2:200904

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Keywords: Banking sector distress; size effects; shock propagation; Granular Residual;

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References

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  1. Allen, Franklin & Gale, Douglas, 2004. "Competition and Financial Stability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 453-80, June.
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  3. Benston, George J, 1972. "Economies of Scale of Financial Institutions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 4(2), pages 312-41, May.
  4. De Graeve, F. & Kick, T. & Koetter, M., 2008. "Monetary policy and financial (in)stability: An integrated micro-macro approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 205-231, September.
  5. Elsinger, Helmut & Lehar, Alfred & Summer, Martin, 2002. "Risk Assessment for Banking Systems," Working Papers 79, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
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  7. Pushkin, Dmitri O & Aref, Hassan, 2004. "Bank mergers as scale-free coagulation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 336(3), pages 571-584.
  8. T. Todd Smith & Garry J. Schinasi, 1999. "Portfolio Diversification, Leverage, and Financial Contagion," IMF Working Papers 99/136, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Xavier Gabaix, 2005. "The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," 2005 Meeting Papers 470, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  10. Upper, Christian & Worms, Andreas, 2002. "Estimating Bilateral Exposures in the German Interbank Market: Is there a Danger of Contagion?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  11. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
  12. Koetter, Michael & Kick, Thomas, 2007. "Slippery slopes of stress: ordered failure events in German banking," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2007,03, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  13. Iman van Lelyveld & Franka Liedorp, 2006. "Interbank Contagion in the Dutch Banking Sector: A Sensitivity Analysis," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May.
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  15. Degryse, H.A. & Nguyen, G., 2006. "Interbank Exposures: An Empirical Examination of Contagion Risk in the Belgian Banking System," Discussion Paper 2006-016, Tilburg University, Tilburg Law and Economic Center.
  16. Calvo, Sara & Reinhart, Carmen, 1996. "Capital flows to Latin America : Is there evidence of contagion effects?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1619, The World Bank.
  17. Black, Harold A & et al, 1997. "Changes in Market Perception of Riskiness: The Case of Too-Big-to-Fail," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 20(3), pages 389-406, Fall.
  18. Jacobson, Tor & Lindé, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2005. "Exploring Interactions between Real Activity and the Financial Stance," Working Paper Series 184, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  19. Eric Santor, 2003. "Banking Crises and Contagion: Empirical Evidence," Working Papers 03-1, Bank of Canada.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Franziska Bremus & Claudia M. Buch, 2013. "Granularity in Banking and Growth: Does Financial Openness Matter?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1346, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  2. Claudia M. Buch & Katja Neugebauer, 2010. "Bank-Specific Shocks and the Real Economy," Working Paper / FINESS 2.3, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  3. del Rosal, Ignacio, 2013. "The granular hypothesis in EU country exports," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(3), pages 433-436.
  4. Vazquez, Francisco & Tabak, Benjamin M. & Souto, Marcos, 2012. "A macro stress test model of credit risk for the Brazilian banking sector," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 69-83.
  5. Bremus, Franziska & Buch, Claudia M. & Russ, Katheryn N. & Schnitzer, Monika, 2013. "Big Banks and Macroeconomic Outcomes: Theory and Cross-Country Evidence of Granularity," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 80048, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  6. repec:diw:diwfin:diwfin is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Blank, Sven & Dovern, Jonas, 2009. "What macroeconomic shocks affect the German banking system? Analysis in an integrated micro-macro model," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2009,15, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  8. Xavier Gabaix, 2009. "The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 15286, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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