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The bull and bear market model of Huang and Day : Some extensions and new results

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  • Tramontana, Fabio
  • Westerhoff, Frank
  • Gardini, Laura

Abstract

We develop a financial market model with interacting chartists and fundamentalists that embeds the famous bull and bear market model of Huang and Day as a special case. Their model is given by a one-dimensional continuous piecewise-linear map. Our model, on the other hand, is more flexible and is represented by a one-dimensional discontinuous piecewise-linear map. Nevertheless, we are able to provide a more or less complete analytical treatment of the model dynamics by characterizing its possible outcomes in parameter space. In addition, we show that quite different scenarios can trigger real-world phenomena such as bull and bear market dynamics and excess volatility. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group in its series BERG Working Paper Series with number 89.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:bamber:89

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Keywords: Heterogeneous interacting agents; Bull and bear market dynamics; Piecewise-linear maps; Border collision bifurcations;

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  1. Manzan, S. & Westerhoff, F., 2002. "Heterogeneous Expectations, Exchange Rate Dynamics and Predictability," CeNDEF Working Papers 02-14, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  2. Fabio Tramontana & Frank Westerhoff & Laura Gardini, 2010. "On the complicated price dynamics of a simple one-dimensional discontinuous financial market model with heterogeneous interacting traders," Working Papers 1005, University of Urbino Carlo Bo, Department of Economics, Society & Politics - Scientific Committee - L. Stefanini & G. Travaglini, revised 2010.
  3. Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He & Weihong Huang & Huanhuan Zheng, 2011. "Estimating Behavioural Heterogeneity Under Regime Switching," Research Paper Series 290, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
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  6. Lukas Menkhoff & Mark P. Taylor, 2007. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals: Technical Analysis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 936-972, December.
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  8. Fabio Tramontana & Frank Westerhoff & Laura Gardini, 2011. "A simple financial market model with chartists and fundamentalists: market entry levels and discontinuities," Quaderni di Dipartimento 150, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods.
  9. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2008. "Heterogeneity, Market Mechanisms, and Asset Price Dynamics," Research Paper Series 231, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  10. Zeeman, E. C., 1974. "On the unstable behaviour of stock exchanges," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 39-49, March.
  11. Day, R. & Huang, W., 1988. "Bulls, Bears And Market Sheep," Papers m8822, Southern California - Department of Economics.
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  13. Gu, M., 1993. "An Empirical Examination of the Deterministic Component in Stock price Volatility," Papers 9308, Southern California - Department of Economics.
  14. Guido VENIER, 2008. "A New Model For Stock Price Movements," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 3(3(5)_Fall), pages 329-350.
  15. Beja, Avraham & Goldman, M Barry, 1980. " On the Dynamic Behavior of Prices in Disequilibrium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(2), pages 235-48, May.
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  17. Frank Westerhoff & Reiner Franke, 2012. "Converse trading strategies, intrinsic noise and the stylized facts of financial markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 425-436, June.
  18. Huang, Weihong & Zheng, Huanhuan & Chia, Wai-Mun, 2010. "Financial crises and interacting heterogeneous agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1105-1122, June.
  19. Huang, Weihong & Zheng, Huanhuan, 2012. "Financial crises and regime-dependent dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 445-461.
  20. Fabio Tramontana & Laura Gardini & Frank Westerhoff, 2011. "Heterogeneous Speculators and Asset Price Dynamics: Further Results from a One-Dimensional Discontinuous Piecewise-Linear Map," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 38(3), pages 329-347, October.
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