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Estimating Behavioural Heterogeneity Under Regime Switching

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Abstract

Financial markets are typically characterized by high (low) price level and low (high) volatility during boom (bust) periods, suggesting that price and volatility tend to move together with different market conditions/states. By proposing a simple heterogeneous agent model of fundamentalists and chartists with Markov chain regime-dependent expectations and applying S&P500 data from January 2000 to June 2010, we show that the estimation of the model matches well with the boom and bust periods in the US stock market. In addition, we find evidence of time-varying behavioural heterogeneity within-group and that the model exhibits good forecasting accuracy.

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Paper provided by Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney in its series Research Paper Series with number 290.

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Length: 32
Date of creation: 01 May 2011
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Handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:290

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Keywords: estimation; heterogeneity; regime switching; boom and bust;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Franke, Reiner & Westerhoff, Frank, 2012. "Structural stochastic volatility in asset pricing dynamics: Estimation and model contest," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1193-1211.
  2. Baur, Dirk G. & Glover, Kristoffer J., 2014. "Heterogeneous expectations in the gold market: Specification and estimation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 116-133.
  3. Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He & Remco C.J. Zwinkels, 2014. "Heterogeneous Expectations in Asset Pricing:Empirical Evidence from the S&P500," Research Paper Series 344, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  4. Huang, Weihong & Zheng, Huanhuan, 2012. "Financial crises and regime-dependent dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 445-461.
  5. Tramontana, Fabio & Westerhoff, Frank & Gardini, Laura, 2013. "The bull and bear market model of Huang and Day: Some extensions and new results," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 2351-2370.

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