IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wrk/warwec/1084.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Hedging against Risk in a Heterogeneous Leveraged Market

Author

Listed:
  • Karlis, Alexandros

    (Department of Physics University of Warwick)

  • Galanis, Giorgos

    (Department of Economics University of Warwick)

  • Terovitis, Spyridon

    (Department of Economics University of Warwick)

  • Turner, Matthew

Abstract

This paper focuses on the use of interest rates as a tool for hedging against the default risk of heterogeneous hedge funds (HFs) in a leveraged market. We assume that the banks study the HFs survival statistics in order to compute default risk and hence the correct interest rate. The emergent non-trivial (heavy-tailed) statistics observed on the aggregate level, prevents the accurate estimation of risk in a leveraged market with heterogeneous agents. Moreover, we show that heterogeneity leads to the clustering of default events and constitutes thus a source of systemic risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Karlis, Alexandros & Galanis, Giorgos & Terovitis, Spyridon & Turner, Matthew, 2015. "Hedging against Risk in a Heterogeneous Leveraged Market," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1084, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:1084
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/workingpapers/2015/twerp_1084_karlis.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
    2. Lux, Thomas, 1998. "The socio-economic dynamics of speculative markets: interacting agents, chaos, and the fat tails of return distributions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 143-165, January.
    3. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
    4. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 2001. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Chapters, in: W. D. Dechert (ed.), Growth Theory, Nonlinear Dynamics and Economic Modelling, chapter 16, pages 402-438, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Stefan Thurner & J. Doyne Farmer & John Geanakoplos, 2012. "Leverage causes fat tails and clustered volatility," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(5), pages 695-707, February.
    6. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1987. "Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 133-153, March.
    7. Boswijk, H. Peter & Hommes, Cars H. & Manzan, Sebastiano, 2007. "Behavioral heterogeneity in stock prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1938-1970, June.
    8. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2009. "More hedging instruments may destabilize markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 1912-1928, November.
    9. Poledna, Sebastian & Thurner, Stefan & Farmer, J. Doyne & Geanakoplos, John, 2014. "Leverage-induced systemic risk under Basle II and other credit risk policies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 199-212.
    10. Carlos A. Molina, 2005. "Are Firms Underleveraged? An Examination of the Effect of Leverage on Default Probabilities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1427-1459, June.
    11. Iori, Giulia, 2002. "A microsimulation of traders activity in the stock market: the role of heterogeneity, agents' interactions and trade frictions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 269-285, October.
    12. Levy, Moshe, 2008. "Stock market crashes as social phase transitions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 137-155, January.
    13. John Geanakoplos, 2009. "The Leverage Cycle," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1715, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    14. Lux, Thomas, 1995. "Herd Behaviour, Bubbles and Crashes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 881-896, July.
    15. Thomas Lux & Michele Marchesi, 1999. "Scaling and criticality in a stochastic multi-agent model of a financial market," Nature, Nature, vol. 397(6719), pages 498-500, February.
    16. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
    17. Carl Chiarella, 1992. "The Dynamics of Speculative Behaviour," Working Paper Series 13, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    18. Alvaro Sandroni, 2000. "Do Markets Favor Agents Able to Make Accurate Predicitions?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1303-1342, November.
    19. Unknown, 2001. "General Discussion," Proceedings of the 6th Agricultural and Food Policy Systems Information Workshop, 2000: Trade Liberalization Under NAFTA: Report Card on Agriculture 16839, Farm Foundation, Agricultural and Food Policy Systems Information Workshops.
    20. John Geanakoplos, 2001. "Liquidity, Default and Crashes: Endogenous Contracts in General Equilibrium," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1316, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Karlis, Alexandros & Galanis, Girogos & Terovitis, Spyridon & Turner, Matthew, 2017. "Heterogeneity and Clustering of Defaults," Economic Research Papers 270011, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    2. A. K. Karlis & G. Galanis & S. Terovitis & M. S. Turner, 2021. "Heterogeneity and clustering of defaults," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(9), pages 1533-1549, September.
    3. Hommes, Cars H., 2006. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 23, pages 1109-1186, Elsevier.
    4. Hommes, C.H., 2005. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance, In: Handbook of Computational Economics II: Agent-Based Computational Economics, edited by Leigh Tesfatsion and Ken Judd , Elsevier, Amsterdam 2006," CeNDEF Working Papers 05-03, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    5. Youwei Li & Xue-Zhong He, 2005. "Long Memory, Heterogeneity, and Trend Chasing," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 113, Society for Computational Economics.
    6. Xue-Zhong He, 2003. "Asset Pricing, Volatility and Market Behaviour: A Market Fraction Approach," Research Paper Series 95, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    7. He, Xue-Zhong & Li, Youwei, 2007. "Power-law behaviour, heterogeneity, and trend chasing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3396-3426, October.
    8. Youwei Li & Xue-Zhong (Tony) He, 2005. "Heterogeneity, Profitability and Autocorrelations," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 244, Society for Computational Economics.
    9. C. Chiarella & X-Z. He, 2001. "Asset price and wealth dynamics under heterogeneous expectations," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(5), pages 509-526.
    10. Xue-Zhong He & Youwei Li, 2017. "The adaptiveness in stock markets: testing the stylized facts in the DAX 30," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 27(5), pages 1071-1094, November.
    11. Agliari, Anna & Naimzada, Ahmad & Pecora, Nicolò, 2018. "Boom-bust dynamics in a stock market participation model with heterogeneous traders," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 458-468.
    12. Cars Hommes & Florian Wagener, 2008. "Complex Evolutionary Systems in Behavioral Finance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-054/1, Tinbergen Institute.
    13. Hommes, Cars, 2018. "Behavioral & experimental macroeconomics and policy analysis: a complex systems approach," Working Paper Series 2201, European Central Bank.
    14. Dieci, Roberto & Westerhoff, Frank, 2010. "Heterogeneous speculators, endogenous fluctuations and interacting markets: A model of stock prices and exchange rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 743-764, April.
    15. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2008. "Heterogeneity, Market Mechanisms, and Asset Price Dynamics," Research Paper Series 231, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    16. Xue-Zhong He & Youwei Li, 2008. "Heterogeneity, convergence, and autocorrelations," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 59-79.
    17. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2014. "Heterogeneous expectations in asset pricing: Empirical evidence from the S&P500," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 1-16.
    18. Detlef Seese & Christof Weinhardt & Frank Schlottmann (ed.), 2008. "Handbook on Information Technology in Finance," International Handbooks on Information Systems, Springer, number 978-3-540-49487-4, November.
    19. E. Samanidou & E. Zschischang & D. Stauffer & T. Lux, 2001. "Microscopic Models of Financial Markets," Papers cond-mat/0110354, arXiv.org.
    20. Dieci, Roberto & Foroni, Ilaria & Gardini, Laura & He, Xue-Zhong, 2006. "Market mood, adaptive beliefs and asset price dynamics," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 520-534.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    survival statistics ; interest rate ; leverage ; financial fragility.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:1084. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Margaret Nash (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dewaruk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.