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Loss Aversion, Presidential Responsibility, and Midterm Congressional Elections

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  • John W. Patty

    (Carnegie Mellon University)

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    Abstract

    I explore a behavioral model of political participation, first introduced by Quattrone and Tversky [1988], based on the primitives of prospect theory, as defined by Kahneman and Tversky [1979]. The model offers an alternative explanation for why the President’s party tends to lose seats in midterm congressional elections. The model is examined empirically and compared against competing explanations for the “midterm phenomenon”.

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    File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/pe/papers/0502/0502007.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Public Economics with number 0502007.

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    Length: 40 pages
    Date of creation: 16 Feb 2005
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwppe:0502007

    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 40
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    Web page: http://128.118.178.162

    Related research

    Keywords: Loss aversion; midterm elections; congressional elections; negative voting; midterm effect;

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    1. Alesina, Alberto & Rosenthal, Howard, 1996. "A Theory of Divided Government," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(6), pages 1311-41, November.
    2. Alberto Alesina & Howard Rosenthal, 1988. "Partisan Cycles in Congressional Elections and the Macroeconomy," NBER Working Papers 2706, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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