Research on Forecasting: A Quarter-Century Review, 1960-1984
AbstractBefore 1960, little empirical research was done on forecasting methods. Since then, the literature has grown rapidly, especially in the area of judgmental forecasting. This research supports and adds to the forecasting guidelines proposed before 1960, such as the value of combining forecasts. New findings have led to significant gains in our ability to forecast and to help people to use forecasts. What have we reamed about forecasting over the past quarter century? Does recent research provide guidance for making more accurate forecasts, obtaining better assessments of uncertainty, or gaining acceptance of our forecasts? I will first describe forecasting principles that were believed to be the most advanced in 1960. Following that, I will examine the evidence produced since 1960.
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Length: 13 pages
Date of creation: 06 Dec 2004
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forecasting; forecasting research;
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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2004-12-12 (All new papers)
- NEP-ETS-2004-12-12 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-HIS-2004-12-12 (Business, Economic & Financial History)
- NEP-HPE-2004-12-12 (History & Philosophy of Economics)
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- J. S. Armstrong, 2005. "Forecasting by Extrapolation: Conclusions from 25 Years of Research," General Economics and Teaching 0502025, EconWPA.
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