IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpgt/0502023.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Forecasting Methods for Marketing:* Review of Empirical Research

Author

Listed:
  • J. S. Armstrong

    (The Wharton School)

  • R. Brodie

    (University of Canterbury)

  • S. McIntyre

    (Santa Clara University)

Abstract

This paper reviews the empirical research on forecasting in marketing. In addition, it presents results from some small scale surveys. We offer a framework for discussing forecasts in the area of marketing, and then review the literature in light of that framework. Particular emphasis is given to a pragmatic interpretation of the literature and findings. Suggestions are made on what research is needed.

Suggested Citation

  • J. S. Armstrong & R. Brodie & S. McIntyre, 2005. "Forecasting Methods for Marketing:* Review of Empirical Research," General Economics and Teaching 0502023, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpgt:0502023
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 23
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/get/papers/0502/0502023.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter R. Winters, 1960. "Forecasting Sales by Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 6(3), pages 324-342, April.
    2. P. Leone, Robert, 1987. "Forecasting the effect of an environmental change on market performance: An intervention time-series approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(3-4), pages 463-478.
    3. Everette S. Gardner, Jr. & Ed. Mckenzie, 1985. "Forecasting Trends in Time Series," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(10), pages 1237-1246, October.
    4. Hagerty, Michael R., 1987. "Conditions under which econometric models will outperform naive models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(3-4), pages 457-460.
    5. Makridakis, Spyros & Hibon, Michele & Lusk, Ed & Belhadjali, Moncef, 1987. "Confidence intervals: An empirical investigation of the series in the M-competition," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(3-4), pages 489-508.
    6. William K. Fudge & Leonard M. Lodish, 1977. "Evaluation of the Effectiveness of a Model Based Salesman's Planning System by Field Experimentation," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 8(1-part-2), pages 97-106, November.
    7. Dalrymple, Douglas J., 1975. "Sales forecasting methods and accuracy," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 69-73, December.
    8. John D. C. Little, 1970. "Models and Managers: The Concept of a Decision Calculus," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 16(8), pages 466-485, April.
    9. Steven P. Schnaars, 1986. "An Evaluation of Rules for Selecting an Extrapolation Model on Yearly Sales Forecasts," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 16(6), pages 100-107, December.
    10. Robin M. Hogarth & Spyros Makridakis, 1981. "Forecasting and Planning: An Evaluation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(2), pages 115-138, February.
    11. Armstrong, J. Scott, 1970. "An Application of Econometric Models to International Marketing," MPRA Paper 81698, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Manohar U. Kalwani & Alvin J. Silk, 1982. "On the Reliability and Predictive Validity of Purchase Intention Measures," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 1(3), pages 243-286.
    13. Huber, Joel, 1975. "Bootstrapping of Data and Decisions," Journal of Consumer Research, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(3), pages 229-234, December.
    14. Rink, David R. & Swan, John E., 1979. "Product life cycle research: A literature review," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 219-242, September.
    15. Geurts, Michael D. & Patrick Kelly, J., 1986. "Forecasting retail sales using alternative models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 261-272.
    16. Armstrong, J. Scott & Andress, James G., 1970. "Exploratory Analysis of Marketing Data: Trees vs. Regression," MPRA Paper 81668, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Spyros Makridakis & Robert L. Winkler, 1983. "Averages of Forecasts: Some Empirical Results," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(9), pages 987-996, September.
    18. Barnett R. Parker & V. Srinivasan, 1976. "A Consumer Preference Approach to the Planning of Rural Primary Health-Care Facilities," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 24(5), pages 991-1025, October.
    19. Dhrymes, Phoebus J. & Peristiani, Stavros C., 1988. "A comparison of the forecasting performance of WEFA and ARIMA time series methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 81-101.
    20. Tyebjee, Tyzoon T., 1987. "Behavioral biases in new product forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(3-4), pages 393-404.
    21. Wilton, Peter C & Pessemier, Edgar A, 1981. "Forecasting the Ultimate Acceptance of an Innovation: The Effects of Information," Journal of Consumer Research, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(2), pages 162-171, September.
    22. Brodie, Roderick J. & De Kluyver, Cornelis A., 1987. "A comparison of the short term forecasting accuracy of econometric and naive extrapolation models of market share," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(3-4), pages 423-437.
    23. JS Armstrong, 2004. "Forecasting Methods for Conflict Situations," General Economics and Teaching 0412025, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Leonard M. Lodish, 1971. "Callplan: An Interactive Salesman's Call Planning System," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(4-Part-II), pages 25-40, December.
    25. Donald S. Tull, 1967. "The Relationship of Actual and Predicted Sales and Profits in New-Product Introductions," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40, pages 233-233.
    26. Lawrence, Michael J. & Edmundson, Robert H. & O'Connor, Marcus J., 1985. "An examination of the accuracy of judgmental extrapolation of time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 25-35.
    27. Dipankar Chakravarti & Andrew Mitchell & Richard Staelin, 1979. "Judgment Based Marketing Decision Models: An Experimental Investigation of the Decision Calculus Approach," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 25(3), pages 251-263, March.
    28. Vijay Mahajan & Eitan Muller & Subhash Sharma, 1984. "An Empirical Comparison of Awareness Forecasting Models of New Product Introduction," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 3(3), pages 179-197.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kesten C. Green & J. Scott Armstrong, 2004. "Value of Expertise For Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 27/04, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Armstrong, J. Scott & Brodie, Roderick J., 1999. "Forecasting for Marketing," MPRA Paper 81690, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Berend Wierenga & Gerrit H. Van Bruggen & Richard Staelin, 1999. "The Success of Marketing Management Support Systems," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(3), pages 196-207.
    3. De Gooijer, Jan G. & Hyndman, Rob J., 2006. "25 years of time series forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 443-473.
    4. Jan G. De Gooijer & Rob J. Hyndman, 2005. "25 Years of IIF Time Series Forecasting: A Selective Review," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 12/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    5. Leitner, Johannes & Leopold-Wildburger, Ulrike, 2011. "Experiments on forecasting behavior with several sources of information - A review of the literature," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 213(3), pages 459-469, September.
    6. Darmon, Rene Y., 2002. "Salespeople's management of customer information: Impact on optimal territory and sales force sizes," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 162-176, February.
    7. van Bruggen, G.H. & Smidts, A. & Wierenga, B., 2000. "The Powerful Triangle of Marketing Data, Managerial Judgment, and Marketing Management Support Systems," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2000-33-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    8. Armstrong, J. Scott & Green, Kesten C. & Graefe, Andreas, 2015. "Golden rule of forecasting: Be conservative," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1717-1731.
    9. Tashman, Leonard J. & Kruk, Joshua M., 1996. "The use of protocols to select exponential smoothing procedures: A reconsideration of forecasting competitions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 235-253, June.
    10. Fildes, Robert & Hibon, Michele & Makridakis, Spyros & Meade, Nigel, 1998. "Generalising about univariate forecasting methods: further empirical evidence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 339-358, September.
    11. J. Scott Armstrong & Kesten C. Green, 2005. "Demand Forecasting: Evidence-based Methods," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 24/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    12. Yuliya S. Evlakhova & Alexandra A. Tregubova, 2023. "Russian Market of Online Microloans to the Population: Credit Risks Analysis," Journal of Applied Economic Research, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 22(3), pages 710-738.
    13. JS Armstrong, 2004. "Research on Forecasting: A Quarter-Century Review, 1960-1984," General Economics and Teaching 0412006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Bonaccorsi, Andrea & Apreda, Riccardo & Fantoni, Gualtiero, 2020. "Expert biases in technology foresight. Why they are a problem and how to mitigate them," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    15. Petropoulos, Fotios & Makridakis, Spyros & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, 2014. "‘Horses for Courses’ in demand forecasting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(1), pages 152-163.
    16. Gary L. Lilien & Arvind Rangaswamy & Gerrit H. Van Bruggen & Katrin Starke, 2004. "DSS Effectiveness in Marketing Resource Allocation Decisions: Reality vs. Perception," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 15(3), pages 216-235, September.
    17. Gardner, Everette Jr., 2006. "Exponential smoothing: The state of the art--Part II," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 637-666.
    18. Lilien, G.L. & Rangaswamy, A. & Starke, K. & van Bruggen, G.H., 2001. "How and Why Decision Models Influence Marketing Resource Allocations," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2001-33-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    19. Fildes, Robert, 2006. "The forecasting journals and their contribution to forecasting research: Citation analysis and expert opinion," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 415-432.
    20. Wierenga, Berend, 2011. "Managerial decision making in marketing: The next research frontier," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 89-101.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    forecasting; marketing; methods; review; research;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • A - General Economics and Teaching

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpgt:0502023. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: EconWPA (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.