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Choice of Prizes Allocated by Multiple Lotteries with Endogenously Determined Probabilities

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Author Info
Amnon Rapoport (University of Arizona)
Alison King Chung Lo (Duke University)
Rami Zwick (The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)

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Abstract

We study a class of interactive decision making situations in which each agent must choose to participate in one of several lotteries with commonly known prizes. In contrast to the widely studied paradigm of choice between gambles in individual decision making under risk, the probability of winning a prize in each of the lotteries in our study is endogenously determined. In particular, for each lottery, it is known to decrease in the number of agents choosing to play that lottery. We construct the Nash equilibrium solution to this game and then test it experimentally in the special case where each lottery yields only a single prize. The results show a remarkable degree of tacit coordination that supports the equilibrium solution under the assumption of common risk-aversion. However, this coordination is not achieved via individual level randomization. Rather, the entry decisions of most of the subjects can be characterized by local adjustments to the outcome of the previous iteration of the same game along the lines suggested by anticipatory learning models.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Experimental with number 0110003.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: 19 Oct 2001
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpex:0110003

Note: Type of Document - Acrobat PDF; prepared on PC; pages: 42; figures: included
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Related research
Keywords: Coordination Endogenously Determined Probabilities

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  4. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. " Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
  5. Friedman, Daniel, 1992. "Theory and Misbehavior of First-Price Auctions: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(5), pages 1374-78, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Colin Camerer & Teck-Hua Ho, 1999. "Experience-weighted Attraction Learning in Normal Form Games," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(4), pages 827-874, July.
  7. Palfrey, Thomas R. & Goeree, Jacob & Holt, Charles, 2000. "Quantal Response Equilibrium and Overbidding in Private-value Auctions," Working Papers 1073, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Cox, James C & Smith, Vernon L & Walker, James M, 1992. "Theory and Misbehavior of First-Price Auctions: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(5), pages 1392-412, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Merlo, Antonio & Schotter, Andrew, 1992. "Theory and Misbehavior of First-Price Auctions: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(5), pages 1413-25, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Harrison, Glenn W, 1989. "Theory and Misbehavior of First-Price Auctions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 749-62, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Camerer, Colin F & Ho, Teck-Hua, 1994. "Violations of the Betweenness Axiom and Nonlinearity in Probability," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 167-96, March.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Blume, Andreas & DeJong, Douglas V. & Maier, Michael, 2005. "Cognition in spatial dispersion games," Discussion Paper 58, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  2. Rami Zwick & Amnon Rapoport & Alison King Chung Lo, 2001. "Behavioral Strategies in Repeated Pure Coordination Games," Experimental 0110004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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