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The Rise in Disability Recipiency and the Decline in Unemployment

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Author Info
David H. Autor
Mark G. Duggan

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Abstract

Between 1984 and 2000, the share of non-elderly adults receiving benefits from the Social Security Disability Insurance (DI) and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) programs rose from 3.1 to 5.3 percent. We trace this growth to reduced screening stringency and, due to the interaction between growing wage inequality and a progressive benefits formula, a rising earnings replacement rate. We explore the implications of these changes for the level of labor force participation among the less skilled and their employment responses to adverse employment shocks. Following program liberalization in 1984, DI application and recipiency rates became two to three times as responsive to plausibly exogenous labor demand shocks. Contemporaneously, male and female high school dropouts became increasingly likely to exit the labor force rather than enter unemployment in the event of an adverse shock. The liberalization of the disability program appears to explain both facts. Accounting for the role of disability in inducing labor force exit among the low-skilled unemployed, we calculate that the U.S. unemployment rate would be two-thirds of a percentage point higher at present were it not for the liberalized disability system.

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Paper provided by Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research in its series JCPR Working Papers with number 226.

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Date of creation: 18 Jun 2001
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Handle: RePEc:wop:jopovw:226

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Dan Black & Kermit Daniel & Seth Sanders, 2002. "The Impact of Economic Conditions on Participation in Disability Programs: Evidence from the Coal Boom and Bust," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 27-50, March. [Downloadable!]
  2. Parsons, Donald O, 1980. "The Decline in Male Labor Force Participation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 117-34, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Christopher J. Ruhm, 2000. "Are Recessions Good For Your Health?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(2), pages 617-650, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Beaudry, Paul & DiNardo, John, 1991. "The Effect of Implicit Contracts on the Movement of Wages over the Business Cycle: Evidence from Micro Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(4), pages 665-88, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Jaeger, David A, 1997. "Reconciling the Old and New Census Bureau Education Questions: Recommendations for Researchers," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(3), pages 300-309, July.
  6. Gruber, Jonathan & Kubik, Jeffrey D., 1997. "Disability insurance rejection rates and the labor supply of older workers," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 1-23, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. John Bound, 1989. "The Health and Earnings of Rejected Disability Insurance Applicants," NBER Working Papers 2816, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Bound, John & Waidmann, Timothy, 1992. "Disability Transfers, Self-Reported Health, and the Labor Force Attachment of Older Men: Evidence from the Historical Record," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(4), pages 1393-419, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Bound, John & Burkhauser, Richard V., 1999. "Economic analysis of transfer programs targeted on people with disabilities," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 51, pages 3417-3528 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Katz, Lawrence F. & Autor, David H., 1999. "Changes in the wage structure and earnings inequality," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 26, pages 1463-1555 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Richard B. Freeman, 1991. "Crime and the Employment of Disadvantaged Youths," NBER Working Papers 3875, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Chinhui Juhn & Kevin M. Murphy & Robert H. Topel, 1991. "Why Has the Natural Rate of Unemployment Increased over Time?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1991-2), pages 75-142. [Downloadable!]
  13. Jonathan Gruber, 2000. "Disability Insurance Benefits and Labor Supply," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(6), pages 1162-1183, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Juhn, Chinhui, 1992. "Decline of Male Labor Market Participation: The Role of Declining Market Opportunities," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(1), pages 79-121, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Diamond, Peter & Sheshinski, Eytan, 1995. "Economic aspects of optimal disability benefits," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 1-23, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Bruce Western & Becky Pettit, 2000. "Incarceration and racial inequality in men's employment," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, ILR School, Cornell University, vol. 54(1), pages 3-16, October.
  17. Timothy J. Bartik, 2003. "Local Economic Development Policies," Staff Working Papers 03-91, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Jonathan Gruber & Jeffrey D. Kubik, 1994. "Disability Insurance Rejection Rates and the Labor Supply of Older Workers," NBER Working Papers 4941, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Darius Lakdawalla & Dana Goldman & Jay Bhattacharya, 2001. "Are the Young Becoming More Disabled?," NBER Working Papers 8247, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Hugo Benitez-Silva & Moshe Buchinsky & Hiu Man Chan & Sofia Cheidvasser & John Rust, 2000. "How Large is the Bias in Self-Reported Disability?," Working Papers 2000-01, Brown University, Department of Economics.
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  21. John Bound & Timothy Waidmann, 2000. "Accounting for Recent Declines in Employment Rates among the Working-Aged Disabled," NBER Working Papers 7975, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Harry J. Holzer & Paul Offner, 2001. "Trends in Employment Outcomes of Young Black Men, 1979-2000," JCPR Working Papers 245, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
  2. Sergi Jiménez-Martín & José M. Labeaga & Cristina Vilaplana Prieto, 2005. "A sequential model for older workers’ labor transitions after a health shock," Economics Working Papers 898, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Wouter Vermeulen, 2006. "Regional disparities in a small country? An analysis of regional unemployment and participation differentials in the Netherlands from 1975 to 2003," CPB Documents 113, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  4. Roger Wilkins, 2003. "Labour Market Outcomes and Welfare Dependence of Persons with Disabilities in Australia," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2003n02, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
  5. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 2002. "The NAIRU in Theory and Practice," NBER Working Papers 8940, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Ron Smith & Gylfi Zoega, 2004. "Global Shocks and Unemployment Adjustment," DEGIT Conference Papers c009_003, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Annemiek Vuren & Daniel Vuuren, 2007. "Financial Incentives in Disability Insurance in the Netherlands," De Economist, Springer, vol. 155(1), pages 73-98, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Sergi Jiménez-Martín & José M. Labeaga & Cristina Vilaplana Prieto, 2006. "A sequential model of older workers' labor force transitions after a health shock," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(9), pages 1033-1054. [Downloadable!]
  9. Mikhail Golosov & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2005. "Designing Optimal Disability Insurance: A Case for Asset Testing," Levine's Bibliography 784828000000000450, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Amitabh Chandra, 2003. "Is the Convergence of the Racial Wage Gap Illusory?," NBER Working Papers 9476, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Mary C. Daly & Andrew J. Houtenville, 2002. "Employment declines among people with disabilities: population movements, isolated experience, or broad policy concern?," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2002-24, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  12. Gabriel Aranovich & Jay Bhattacharya & Alan M. Garber & Thomas E. MaCurdy, 2009. "Coping with Chronic Disease? Chronic Disease and Disability in Elderly American Population 1982-1999," NBER Working Papers 14811, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Alan B. Krueger & Bruce D. Meyer, 2002. "Labor Supply Effects of Social Insurance," NBER Working Papers 9014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Mikhail Golosov & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2003. "Designing optimal disability insurance," Working Papers 628, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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