Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

New Developments in the Methodology of Expert- and Argument-Based Probabilistic Population Forecasting


Author Info

  • W. Lutz
  • P. Saariluoma
  • W.C. Sanderson
  • S. Scherbov


All population projections are based in one form or another on expert judgement about likely future trends, structural continuity, etc. Although experts are clearly superior to lay people in their field of expertise, when it comes to forecasting they may make serious errors and can be as ignorant as anybody. In the context of expert-based probabilistic population projections, this issue is receiving even more attention. In this paper we argue that information about the future cannot be true for the reason that it is being presented by an acknowledged authority (institution or person), nor is it acceptable to resolve scientific issues on the ground of voting or concert. As an alternative we propose the concept of argument-based expert opinion. Under this approach any structural and trend assumption needs to be based on explicit argumentation rather than implicit judgement.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL:
Download Restriction: no

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in its series Working Papers with number ir00020.

as in new window
Date of creation: Mar 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wop:iasawp:ir00020

Contact details of provider:
Postal: A-2361 Laxenburg
Phone: +43-2236-807-0
Fax: +43-2236-71313
Web page:
More information through EDIRC

Related research


This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Pflaumer, Peter, 1988. "Confidence intervals for population projections based on Monte Carlo methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 135-142.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)



This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.


Access and download statistics


When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wop:iasawp:ir00020. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Thomas Krichel).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.