A Stochastic Forecast Model for Japan's Population
AbstractObtaining appropriate forecasts for the future population is a vital component of public policy analysis for issues ranging from government budgets to pension systems. Traditionally, demographic forecasters rely on a deterministic approach with various scenarios informed by expert opinion. This approach has been widely criticized, and we apply an alternative stochastic modeling framework that can provide a probability distribution for forecasts of the Japanese population. We find the potential for much greater variability in the future demographic situation for Japan than that implied by existing deterministic forecasts. This demands greater flexibility from policy makers when confronting population aging issues.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by M.E. Sharpe, Inc. in its journal Japanese Economy.
Volume (Year): 38 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 (July)
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Web page: http://mesharpe.metapress.com/link.asp?target=journal&id=110911
Other versions of this item:
- Yoichi Okita & Wade D. Pfau & Giang Thanh Long, 2009. "A Stochastic Forecast Model For Japan'S Population," GRIPS Discussion Papers 09-06, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
- J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
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- Lee, Ronald D., 1993. "Modeling and forecasting the time series of US fertility: Age distribution, range, and ultimate level," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 187-202, August.
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