A Stochastic Forecast Model For Japan'S Population
AbstractObtaining appropriate forecasts for the future population is a vital component of public policy analysis for issues ranging from government budgets to pension systems. Traditionally, demographic forecasters rely on a deterministic approach with various scenarios informed by expert opinion. This approach has been widely criticized, and we apply an alternative stochastic modeling framework that can provide a probability distribution for forecasts of the Japanese population. We find the potential for much greater variability in the future demographic situation for Japan than implied by existing deterministic forecasts. This demands greater flexibility from policy makers when confronting population aging issues.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in its series GRIPS Discussion Papers with number 09-06.
Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: May 2009
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 7-22-1 Roppongi, Minato-ku, Tokyo, Japan 106-8677
Web page: http://r-center.grips.ac.jp/DiscussionPapers
More information through EDIRC
stochastic population forecasts; Japan; Lee-Carter method;
Other versions of this item:
- Yoichi Okita & Wade D. Pfau & Giang Thanh Long, 2011. "A Stochastic Forecast Model for Japan's Population," Japanese Economy, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 38(2), pages 19-44, July.
- J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGE-2009-12-11 (Economics of Ageing)
- NEP-ALL-2009-12-11 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2009-12-11 (Econometrics)
- NEP-FOR-2009-12-11 (Forecasting)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lee, Ronald D., 1993. "Modeling and forecasting the time series of US fertility: Age distribution, range, and ultimate level," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 187-202, August.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.